shoebat--2020-11-14--Russian Military Vessels Harass American Fishermen In American Waters

With Russia trying to rebuild the USSR and assert herself as a major global power again , this has come with some new attempts to bolster and assert herself .
However , in Russian fashion , while she is excellent ( better than the Americans and Anglos ) at bluffing , she is poor at lying and because of this she can do things that are openly objectionable for all to see and call out .
Such an example of the latter happened recently according to the New York Times , where the Russian military began harassing American fishermen operating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The crew of the Bristol Leader was laying out its long cod-catching line well within U.S. fishing territory in the Bering Sea when a voice crackled over the VHF radio and began issuing commands : The ship was in danger , it said , and needed to move .
The warnings , coming in a mixture of Russian and accented English from a plane buzzing overhead , grew more specific and more urgent .
There was a submarine nearby , the voice said .
Missiles were being fired .
Leave the area .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ over 100 miles of open sea were getting similar messages .
Capt .
Steve Elliott stood dumbfounded on the trawler Vesteraalen as three Russian warships came barreling through , barking orders of their own .
On the ship Blue North , commands from a Russian plane led Capt .
David Anderson to contact the U.S. Coast Guard , wondering how to protect his crew of 27 .
“ It was frightening , to say the least , ” Anderson said .
“ The Coast Guard ’ s response was : Just do what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in August inside the U.S. economic zone off the coast of Alaska were the latest in a series of escalated encounters across the North Pacific and the Arctic , where the retreat of polar ice continues to draw new commercial and military traffic .
This year , the Russian military has driven a new nuclear-powered icebreaker straight to the North Pole , dropped paratroopers into a high-Arctic archipelago to perform a mock battle and repeatedly flown bombers to the edge of U.S. airspace .
Lt. Gen. David Krumm , commander of the multi-force @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Force , said that while the Arctic used to provide a natural buffer between the nations of the far north , the new possibility of ice-free passage has changed that .
“ We ’ re at a pivotal point in the timeline of the Arctic , ” he said at a recent convention of the Alaska Federation of Natives , many of whose members reside in remote villages scattered throughout the northern region .
Krumm said the United States would need to invest in operations , equipment and training to prepare for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , has historically been viewed as a base from which to project American power elsewhere in the world , but the mission is changing .
“ What we have to do now is be prepared to fight here and defend here , ” he said .
( source ) It is not as though the US is unaware of what is going on .
However , it seems here that she may be doing what the US does very well , which is to allow her enemies to do things intentionally , yet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Then , after enough time passes , to pull out her “ list of notes ” and put them as a giant list of grievances and use it as a justification to respond very violently and swiftly to her advantage , and because they will be so documented , to prevent the other side from being able to deny or hide their actions , noting as I said above , the Russians are absolutely terrible at lying .
The US knows very well that a major war with Russia is coming , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she knows one of the theaters will be in the Arctic .
Most of this from what I have seen will probably be located from Norway to the Novaya Zemlya region , but because of the proximity of Russia to Alaska , it may include that area , possibly Alaska , Chukotka ( the Russian borderlands near Alaska ) and other areas in the “ Russian Far East ” , especially since Russia is ( and not with much success ) attempting to carve out her own path through the ice of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the Far East , knowing that she is being economically cut out of much of the railway developments taking place that are going from Turkey to the Hindu subcontinent and then to the Far East .
The trends of increasing militarization in the northern regions with Russia are going to be major trends to watch for , since they will be critical steps on the road towards a global war .
Donate now to help support the work of this site .
When you donate , you are not donating to just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is endlessly observing the news , reading between the lines and separating hysteria and perception from reality .
In shoebat.com , we are working every day , tirelessly investigating global trends and providing data and analysis to tell you what lies for the future .
CLICK HERE TO FOLLOW OUR NEW SHOEBAT FACEBOOK PAGE

With Russia trying to rebuild the USSR and assert herself as a major global power again, this has come with some new attempts to bolster and assert herself. However, in Russian fashion, while she is excellent (better than the Americans and Anglos) at bluffing, she is poor at lying and because of this she can do things that are openly objectionable for all to see and call out. Such an example of the latter happened recently according to the New York Times, where the Russian military began harassing American fishermen operating directly in American waters in Alaska.
The crew of the Bristol Leader was laying out its long cod-catching line well within U.S. fishing territory in the Bering Sea when a voice crackled over the VHF radio and began issuing commands: The ship was in danger, it said, and needed to move. The warnings, coming in a mixture of Russian and accented English from a plane buzzing overhead, grew more specific and more urgent. There was a submarine nearby, the voice said. Missiles were being fired. Leave the area. Other U.S. fishing vessels that were scattered over 100 miles of open sea were getting similar messages. Capt. Steve Elliott stood dumbfounded on the trawler Vesteraalen as three Russian warships came barreling through, barking orders of their own. On the ship Blue North, commands from a Russian plane led Capt. David Anderson to contact the U.S. Coast Guard, wondering how to protect his crew of 27. “It was frightening, to say the least,” Anderson said. “The Coast Guard’s response was: Just do what they say.” The Russian military operations in August inside the U.S. economic zone off the coast of Alaska were the latest in a series of escalated encounters across the North Pacific and the Arctic, where the retreat of polar ice continues to draw new commercial and military traffic. This year, the Russian military has driven a new nuclear-powered icebreaker straight to the North Pole, dropped paratroopers into a high-Arctic archipelago to perform a mock battle and repeatedly flown bombers to the edge of U.S. airspace. … Lt. Gen. David Krumm, commander of the multi-force Alaskan Command and also the 11th Air Force, said that while the Arctic used to provide a natural buffer between the nations of the far north, the new possibility of ice-free passage has changed that. “We’re at a pivotal point in the timeline of the Arctic,” he said at a recent convention of the Alaska Federation of Natives, many of whose members reside in remote villages scattered throughout the northern region. Krumm said the United States would need to invest in operations, equipment and training to prepare for the changing environment. Alaska, he said, has historically been viewed as a base from which to project American power elsewhere in the world, but the mission is changing. “What we have to do now is be prepared to fight here and defend here,” he said. (source)
It is not as though the US is unaware of what is going on. However, it seems here that she may be doing what the US does very well, which is to allow her enemies to do things intentionally, yet not respond and just note them. Then, after enough time passes, to pull out her “list of notes” and put them as a giant list of grievances and use it as a justification to respond very violently and swiftly to her advantage, and because they will be so documented, to prevent the other side from being able to deny or hide their actions, noting as I said above, the Russians are absolutely terrible at lying.
The US knows very well that a major war with Russia is coming, and given what I have seen, that she knows one of the theaters will be in the Arctic. Most of this from what I have seen will probably be located from Norway to the Novaya Zemlya region, but because of the proximity of Russia to Alaska, it may include that area, possibly Alaska, Chukotka (the Russian borderlands near Alaska) and other areas in the “Russian Far East”, especially since Russia is (and not with much success) attempting to carve out her own path through the ice of the north pole as a new transportation route to the Far East, knowing that she is being economically cut out of much of the railway developments taking place that are going from Turkey to the Hindu subcontinent and then to the Far East.
The trends of increasing militarization in the northern regions with Russia are going to be major trends to watch for, since they will be critical steps on the road towards a global war.
print


shoebat--2020-11-13--Justice Alito: COVID-19 Is A ‘Constitutional Stress Test’ That The US Is Failing

Justice Samuel Alito , a man who is long-regarded as one of the ‘ conservative ’ justices on the Supreme Court , according to a recent interview reported by ThomsonReuters said that the current COVID-19 pandemic has been a kind of ‘ constitutional stress test ’ to see how the integrity of the rights guaranteed in it would be able to stand up , and he alluded that the US is failing it and risks relegating certain rights , such as freedom of speech and freedom of religion , to a ‘ second tier ’ .
U.S. Supreme Court Justice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ led to “ previously unimaginable ” curbs on individual liberty , singling out restrictions on religious events .
The justice , who is seen as a conservative , told a meeting of the Federalist Society late on Thursday he was not underplaying the severity of the crisis or criticizing any officials for their response .
But he added : “ We have never before seen restrictions as severe , extensive and prolonged as those experienced for most of 2020.
” “ The COVID crisis has served as sort of a constitutional stress test @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over a video link for the conservative organization ’ s annual conference https : //bit.ly/2H21TvK .
Alito , who was appointed by Republican President George W. Bush in 2006 , referred to restrictions on gatherings that had affected religious events .
“ Think of worship services !
Churches closed on Easter Sunday , synagogues closed for Passover in Yom Kippur ” , he said .
“ It pains me to say this , ” Alito added , “ but in certain quarters , religious liberty is fast becoming a disfavored right.
” The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under threat .
“ Although that freedom is falling out of favor in some circles , we need to do whatever we can to prevent it from becoming a second-tier constitutional right , ” he said .
Alito ’ s remarks on free speech echoed his words from 2016 at the same event when he referred to college campus culture that conservatives say stifles free speech to avoid offending political sensibilities on matters such as gender , race and religion .
Social norms had created a list of things that was now unacceptable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say , he added on Thursday .
“ You can ’ t say that marriage is a union between one man and one woman ” , he added .
“ Until very recently that ’ s what a vast majority of Americans thought .
Now its considered bigotry.
” ( source )

Justice Samuel Alito, a man who is long-regarded as one of the ‘conservative’ justices on the Supreme Court, according to a recent interview reported by ThomsonReuters said that the current COVID-19 pandemic has been a kind of ‘constitutional stress test’ to see how the integrity of the rights guaranteed in it would be able to stand up, and he alluded that the US is failing it and risks relegating certain rights, such as freedom of speech and freedom of religion, to a ‘second tier’.
U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito said the COVID-19 pandemic had led to “previously unimaginable” curbs on individual liberty, singling out restrictions on religious events.
The justice, who is seen as a conservative, told a meeting of the Federalist Society late on Thursday he was not underplaying the severity of the crisis or criticizing any officials for their response.
But he added: “We have never before seen restrictions as severe, extensive and prolonged as those experienced for most of 2020.”
“The COVID crisis has served as sort of a constitutional stress test,” he said during his address over a video link for the conservative organization’s annual conference https://bit.ly/2H21TvK.
Alito, who was appointed by Republican President George W. Bush in 2006, referred to restrictions on gatherings that had affected religious events.
“Think of worship services! Churches closed on Easter Sunday, synagogues closed for Passover in Yom Kippur”, he said.
“It pains me to say this,” Alito added, “but in certain quarters, religious liberty is fast becoming a disfavored right.”
The justice said freedom of speech was also under threat.
“Although that freedom is falling out of favor in some circles, we need to do whatever we can to prevent it from becoming a second-tier constitutional right,” he said.
Alito’s remarks on free speech echoed his words from 2016 at the same event when he referred to college campus culture that conservatives say stifles free speech to avoid offending political sensibilities on matters such as gender, race and religion.
Social norms had created a list of things that was now unacceptable for students, professors and employees to say, he added on Thursday.
“You can’t say that marriage is a union between one man and one woman”, he added. “Until very recently that’s what a vast majority of Americans thought. Now its considered bigotry.” (source)


shoebat--2020-11-13--Small Businesses Are Dying Amid Pandemic And Lack Of Funds

The effects of COVID-19 continue to linger and are not going away .
Since the economy is consumer-driven , when people can not earn money , they can ’ t spend , meaning they can ’ t consume , meaning businesses can ’ t make money , meaning they can ’ t pay their debts , meaning the whole economy suffers .
It ’ s a circle of pain that is directly tied to the national debts and will not go away until the debts are taken care of , and there is no way to take care of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leading to a deflationary depression ) or printing money to service debts and in the process destroying the value of the money and putting the world economy system into chaos ( hyperinflation ) .
Since the latter is more politically useful , it is more likely this will happen , for as Alan Greenspan famously said , the US can pay any debts she has because all she has to do is print the money to pay it .
Another stimulus bailout is likely going to come because people and businesses alike are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people are asking for one as small businesses are forced to permanently close .
The election may be over , but the White House and Capitol Hill are no closer to terms on a new Covid-19 relief plan .
And even if a deal is reached , it ’ s far too late to help save as many as 100,000 small businesses that have been forced to close while waiting for more help , like The Funky Sister .
Neighborhood shops around the country are in mortal danger every day Washington fails to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drowning right now , ” said Sung Won Sohn , an economist at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles .
“ They have very little financial cushion to begin with , many of them have hand-to-mouth operations , and they have no place to turn to except the government.
” The situation is grim .
Local news outlets are filled with stories of beloved institutions going under for good as they face a raging winter coronavirus outbreak , the specter of new health restrictions and no sign of federal aid to help carry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine may be available .
From a famed New York City barbershop to an influential music venue in Athens , Georgia , the NBC News audience has shared the names of nearly 200 favorite businesses they ’ ve said goodbye to in recent months .
It ’ s a list that undoubtedly will grow .
But the government isn ’ t moving .
While there ’ s little dispute in Washington that aid is needed , the White House and Democratic and Republican leaders are far from an agreement .
Even though key @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expired more than three months ago , each side is still holding out for what it hopes will be a better deal .
The Democratic-led House in May passed the HEROES Act , a $ 3 trillion relief bill that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell , R-Ky. , refused to take up , saying it was too large .
McConnell instead pushed for a $ 500 billion bill , which Democrats said was far too narrow .
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi , D-Calif. , and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin , meanwhile , have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 1.8 trillion range .
McConnell , fresh off his re-election , has said that he would try again to pass a more limited relief bill that included support for small businesses but that he wouldn ’ t accept the “ absurd multitrillion-dollar socialist wish lists Democrats have demanded.
” Trump , still stewing over an election loss that he has vowed to fight , is an unpredictable factor in negotiations .
Over the last several weeks , he abruptly ended and restarted talks and has shown little interest in addressing the crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , according to the business listing site Yelp , 60 percent of stores that have closed since the pandemic began have done so for good .
( source ) People who lose their businesses will have nowhere to go .
How will they find work when so many others are also out of work ?
This economic crisis is FAR from over .
It is just beginning , as economies are about people , and if the people can not participate , it has direct effects on the society , and it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or a desire to work , but that because of monetary policy and laws created to feed that policy , people are locked out of providing for themselves and instead forced into desperation .
In other words , work as hard as you can and prepare , since there is an economic ‘ day of reckoning ’ at hand and we are seeing the process of it take place , as it does not happen ‘ gradually ’ , but is small changes that suddenly change very fast at the end and well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Donate now to help support the work of this site .
When you donate , you are not donating to just any commentary group , but one that is endlessly observing the news , reading between the lines and separating hysteria and perception from reality .
In shoebat.com , we are working every day , tirelessly investigating global trends and providing data and analysis to tell you what lies for the future .
CLICK HERE TO FOLLOW OUR NEW SHOEBAT FACEBOOK PAGE

The effects of COVID-19 continue to linger and are not going away. Since the economy is consumer-driven, when people cannot earn money, they can’t spend, meaning they can’t consume, meaning businesses can’t make money, meaning they can’t pay their debts, meaning the whole economy suffers. It’s a circle of pain that is directly tied to the national debts and will not go away until the debts are taken care of, and there is no way to take care of the debt except by either a jubilee (leading to a deflationary depression) or printing money to service debts and in the process destroying the value of the money and putting the world economy system into chaos (hyperinflation). Since the latter is more politically useful, it is more likely this will happen, for as Alan Greenspan famously said, the US can pay any debts she has because all she has to do is print the money to pay it.
Another stimulus bailout is likely going to come because people and businesses alike are suffering. According to NBC, many people are asking for one as small businesses are forced to permanently close.
The election may be over, but the White House and Capitol Hill are no closer to terms on a new Covid-19 relief plan. And even if a deal is reached, it’s far too late to help save as many as 100,000 small businesses that have been forced to close while waiting for more help, like The Funky Sister. Neighborhood shops around the country are in mortal danger every day Washington fails to act. “Many small businesses are drowning right now,” said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. “They have very little financial cushion to begin with, many of them have hand-to-mouth operations, and they have no place to turn to except the government.” The situation is grim. Local news outlets are filled with stories of beloved institutions going under for good as they face a raging winter coronavirus outbreak, the specter of new health restrictions and no sign of federal aid to help carry them over into brighter times when a vaccine may be available. From a famed New York City barbershop to an influential music venue in Athens, Georgia, the NBC News audience has shared the names of nearly 200 favorite businesses they’ve said goodbye to in recent months. It’s a list that undoubtedly will grow. But the government isn’t moving. While there’s little dispute in Washington that aid is needed, the White House and Democratic and Republican leaders are far from an agreement. Even though key parts of the last financial stimulus package expired more than three months ago, each side is still holding out for what it hopes will be a better deal. The Democratic-led House in May passed the HEROES Act, a $3 trillion relief bill that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., refused to take up, saying it was too large. McConnell instead pushed for a $500 billion bill, which Democrats said was far too narrow. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, meanwhile, have failed to reach a deal in the $1.8 trillion range. McConnell, fresh off his re-election, has said that he would try again to pass a more limited relief bill that included support for small businesses but that he wouldn’t accept the “absurd multitrillion-dollar socialist wish lists Democrats have demanded.” Trump, still stewing over an election loss that he has vowed to fight, is an unpredictable factor in negotiations. Over the last several weeks, he abruptly ended and restarted talks and has shown little interest in addressing the crisis since Nov. 3. In the meantime, according to the business listing site Yelp, 60 percent of stores that have closed since the pandemic began have done so for good. (source)
People who lose their businesses will have nowhere to go. How will they find work when so many others are also out of work?
This economic crisis is FAR from over. It is just beginning, as economies are about people, and if the people cannot participate, it has direct effects on the society, and it is not because of a lack of industry or a desire to work, but that because of monetary policy and laws created to feed that policy, people are locked out of providing for themselves and instead forced into desperation.
In other words, work as hard as you can and prepare, since there is an economic ‘day of reckoning’ at hand and we are seeing the process of it take place, as it does not happen ‘gradually’, but is small changes that suddenly change very fast at the end and well after it becomes too late to fix.
print


shoebat--2020-11-13--Report: Trump Contemplating 2024 Run Amid Assuming 2020 Loss

Are elections becoming like Christmas , where decorations are up for sale by Halloween ?
With a loyal group of followers and his chances dwindling for success in the election , there are reports according to The Hill that Trump is secretly assuming a 2020 loss and preparing for a 2024 run .
President Trump has reportedly told some of his advisers that if President-elect Joe Biden is officially certified as the winner of the 2020 race , he could announce his plan to run for the White House in 2024 shortly after , according to The New York Times @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mulling different scenarios for his future as he faces an uphill battle challenging election results that have been called in favor of Biden .
The Times reported Thursday that at a White House meeting Wednesday , the president spoke with several advisers , many of whom told the president that his chances of changing the outcome of the 2020 election through his campaign ’ s multistate legal battle are extremely low .
“ He knows it ’ s over , ” one adviser told the Times .
According to interviews with half a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the president has no larger strategy to continue denying the election results in several key battleground states , but is instead hoping to maintain support from his base as he considers what he will do once he leaves the Oval Office .
Trump ’ s reelection campaign has filed lawsuits in Michigan , Georgia and Pennsylvania over allegations of widespread voter fraud and voting irregularities , with Trump repeatedly claiming on Twitter that he won the election and that there was a coordinated effort by Democrats to steal the election from him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ officials and courts have disputed the voter fraud claims .
The president has reportedly told advisers that if the race is certified for Biden , he is seriously considering announcing his 2024 bid shortly after .
Axios first reported Monday that Trump was considering running again in 2024 .
The news came just two days after The Associated Press and other major news outlets called the 2020 race for Biden .
Trump has since refused to concede .
U.S. presidents are only allowed to serve two terms , but those terms are not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president in history to serve two nonconsecutive terms is former President Grover Cleveland , who served as the 22nd and 24th president .
On Thursday , betting site Bovada placed Trump , Vice President Pence and former U.S .
Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley as the three most likely GOP figures to win the Republican primary in 2024 .
( source )

Are elections becoming like Christmas, where decorations are up for sale by Halloween? With a loyal group of followers and his chances dwindling for success in the election, there are reports according to The Hill that Trump is secretly assuming a 2020 loss and preparing for a 2024 run.
President Trump has reportedly told some of his advisers that if President-elect Joe Biden is officially certified as the winner of the 2020 race, he could announce his plan to run for the White House in 2024 shortly after, according to The New York Times. The conversation came amid the president mulling different scenarios for his future as he faces an uphill battle challenging election results that have been called in favor of Biden. The Times reported Thursday that at a White House meeting Wednesday, the president spoke with several advisers, many of whom told the president that his chances of changing the outcome of the 2020 election through his campaign’s multistate legal battle are extremely low. “He knows it’s over,” one adviser told the Times. According to interviews with half a dozen advisers and others close to Trump, the president has no larger strategy to continue denying the election results in several key battleground states, but is instead hoping to maintain support from his base as he considers what he will do once he leaves the Oval Office. Trump’s reelection campaign has filed lawsuits in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania over allegations of widespread voter fraud and voting irregularities, with Trump repeatedly claiming on Twitter that he won the election and that there was a coordinated effort by Democrats to steal the election from him. Election security officials, local election officials and courts have disputed the voter fraud claims. The president has reportedly told advisers that if the race is certified for Biden, he is seriously considering announcing his 2024 bid shortly after. Axios first reported Monday that Trump was considering running again in 2024. The news came just two days after The Associated Press and other major news outlets called the 2020 race for Biden. Trump has since refused to concede. U.S. presidents are only allowed to serve two terms, but those terms are not required to be consecutive. The only president in history to serve two nonconsecutive terms is former President Grover Cleveland, who served as the 22nd and 24th president. On Thursday, betting site Bovada placed Trump, Vice President Pence and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley as the three most likely GOP figures to win the Republican primary in 2024. (source)
Right now, it is far too early to think about 2024. A lot can and will happen in that time, the most easily documentable being the decline of the Boomers and demographic shifts that incline to the Democrats but could change assuming four years of bad policies under Biden, a trend which I have noted before will be important to watch, especially among the critical Hispanic bloc. This does not even discuss the geopolitical tensions, and domestically speaking, the massive debts in the US that likely will be serviced by means of currency devaluation through hyperinflation.
At this point, from a politically strategic view, it is likely he will be more influential by way of doing what he does best- going back into acting and promoting his own “Trump News Network” of sorts to advance his own views and propaganda. I say this as non-partisan, and strictly from the perspective of trends and strategy, as he has a practical cult built up around him that could, if played well, live after his dead and become a force for the political right.
Trump cannot do so much in office. If he was re-elected, not only is it likely that he would ensure a Democrat victory in 2024, but he would probably be a lame-duck president and could find himself- and the Republican party by extension -blamed for the looming debt crises.
As I have said before, Trump is more likely to win by losing, as he will be more inclined to lose by winning.
print


shoebat--2020-11-13--Another Major Law Firm Drops Support Of Trump Election Lawsuits

While many say that there is ‘ no evidence ’ of voter fraud , I must disagree in that it is rather the opposite .
However , it does not always mean that representing such a case will be long-term beneficial ( as the American legal system is more a matter of perception and presentation than truth ) , or that it is not a part of a larger plan , which as I have noted , seems to be attempting to dump the debt problems on a Democrat .
Whatever the reason is , Politico reports that another major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lawsuits has withdrawn their assistance and will not represent him .
Late Thursday night , Columbus-based firm Porter Wright Morris & Arthur notified a federal judge hearing a Trump-filed suit over the election tallies in Pennsylvania that the firm is seeking to pull out of the case .
The development comes as Trump ’ s political opponents have sought to put public pressure on law firms assisting what many legal experts view as a meritless and likely fruitless campaign to try to thwart President-elect Joe Biden from taking office despite the fact that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ victor and the near-final counts showing Biden thousands of votes ahead in the key battleground states .
Some Trump critics including Republicans affiliated with the Lincoln Project have indicated they planned to pressure the commercial clients of law firms representing the campaign to drop the firms if they continued with the court fight on behalf of the president .
In the motion filed at 11:53 p.m. on Thursday , Porter Wright lawyers Ronald Hicks and Carolyn McGee — who work out of the firm ’ s Pittsburgh office — said the campaign was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ causing other counsel ” to take over the case .
The attorneys said they and the campaign had agreed on the withdrawal , but Hicks and McGee were vague about the reason for their exit .
“ Plaintiffs and Porter Wright have reached a mutual agreement that Plaintiffs will be best served if Porter Wright withdraws , and current co-counsel and such other counsel as Plaintiffs may choose to engage represent Plaintiffs in this case , ” the filing said .
It is highly unusual for a major law firm to seek to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ litigation so soon after it commenced .
The suit in question , before U.S. District Court Judge Michael Brann in Williamsport , Pa. , was filed just four days ago .
( source ) The cult of Trump needs to die , because political parties- if they want to survive long-term - can not be based strictly around individual people , especially those who make promises and do not keep them like Trump has clearly done .
Trump probably does not see this , and again , his claims of fraud are not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that in his arrogance , he does not want to accept loss even though it is by losing that he wins , since he can slide off any problems in the future- including those sped up by his signing of the COVID-19 coronavirus stimulus bill that is actively devaluating the currency -onto his successor .
I am not saying this law firm is aware of this , or may know anything .
However , as the story pointed out , something clearly happened , since it is unusual for a major firm to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what we know or do not know , we do know many things about the state of the economy from the externals , and if anything , that Trump ’ s image and the life of the Republican party is better helped by his loss than his political victory .
Donate now to help support the work of this site .
When you donate , you are not donating to just any commentary group , but one that is endlessly observing the news , reading between the lines and separating hysteria and perception @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are working every day , tirelessly investigating global trends and providing data and analysis to tell you what lies for the future .
CLICK HERE TO FOLLOW OUR NEW SHOEBAT FACEBOOK PAGE

Politico reports that another major law firm representing Trump’s election lawsuits has withdrawn their assistance and will not represent him.
Late Thursday night, Columbus-based firm Porter Wright Morris & Arthur notified a federal judge hearing a Trump-filed suit over the election tallies in Pennsylvania that the firm is seeking to pull out of the case.
The development comes as Trump’s political opponents have sought to put public pressure on law firms assisting what many legal experts view as a meritless and likely fruitless campaign to try to thwart President-elect Joe Biden from taking office despite the fact that major media outlets have declared Biden the victor and the near-final counts showing Biden thousands of votes ahead in the key battleground states.
Some Trump critics including Republicans affiliated with the Lincoln Project have indicated they planned to pressure the commercial clients of law firms representing the campaign to drop the firms if they continued with the court fight on behalf of the president. In the motion filed at 11:53 p.m. on Thursday, Porter Wright lawyers Ronald Hicks and Carolyn McGee — who work out of the firm’s Pittsburgh office — said the campaign was “in the process of retaining and causing other counsel” to take over the case.
The attorneys said they and the campaign had agreed on the withdrawal, but Hicks and McGee were vague about the reason for their exit.
“Plaintiffs and Porter Wright have reached a mutual agreement that Plaintiffs will be best served if Porter Wright withdraws, and current co-counsel and such other counsel as Plaintiffs may choose to engage represent Plaintiffs in this case,” the filing said.
It is highly unusual for a major law firm to seek to withdraw its representation of a client in litigation so soon after it commenced. The suit in question, before U.S. District Court Judge Michael Brann in Williamsport, Pa., was filed just four days ago. (source)


shoebat--2020-11-13--Trump Supporters Prepare To Descend On Washington For “Million MAGA March”

As tensions rise between Democrats and Republican supporters over the election results WWJ News Radio reports that pro-Trump supporters are planning a “ Million MAGA March ” in support of Trump .
Supporters of President Donald Trump plan to descend on Washington DC Saturday by car and bus to support their candidate in the Million MAGA March .
Articia Bomer of Detroit will be among them , and she ’ s organizing a caravan of other like-minded folks from the city to join her .
For Bomer , the issue she wants to support is Trump ’ s unproven claims @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they ’ re marching to Stop the Steal because as well all know there was a lot of voter fraud going down at TCF in Michigan , so we ’ re going there for support , a caravan of us , and we ’ re going to support our president , ” she said on WWJ 950 .
No evidence of voter fraud has been discovered despite Trump ’ s repeated claims , and lawsuits with that allegation have been tossed out in Michigan and across the country .
Michigan Secretary of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voting process was fair and transparent , and says any lie to the contrary is an attack on democracy .
Still , a large crowd of supporters is expected to converge to march from the Supreme Court to the White House .
“ I think it ’ s going to be quite large from what I ’ m hearing , don ’ t have an estimate for you , ” White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany told Fox News when asked about the event .
The main gathering is scheduled to start at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ D.C. , at 12 p.m. with a march to the Supreme Court at 2 p.m. DCish reports groups involved include Stop the Steal DC , the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers , according to a report by DCist .
But for Bomer , turning out is less about a cause and more about a man .
“ Trump is amazing , he ’ s not a politician .
Joe Biden , Kamala Harris , they ’ re politicians .
They know how to do all the dirtiness .
Trump was sent here to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a great job , ” Bomer said .
Bomer added she doesn ’ t believe election officials when they say the vote wasn ’ t tampered with .
“ I would say they don ’ t know what they ’ re talking about and we ’ ll just wait and see , ” she said .
“ We have court cases pending and right now we ’ re putting it in front of justices to be accurate and precise and get to the truth.
” A counterprotest called “ F— MAGA ” has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( source )

As tensions rise between Democrats and Republican supporters over the election results WWJ News Radio reports that pro-Trump supporters are planning a “Million MAGA March” in support of Trump.
Supporters of President Donald Trump plan to descend on Washington DC Saturday by car and bus to support their candidate in the Million MAGA March.
Articia Bomer of Detroit will be among them, and she’s organizing a caravan of other like-minded folks from the city to join her. For Bomer, the issue she wants to support is Trump’s unproven claims of flagrant voter fraud.
“Well, they’re marching to Stop the Steal because as well all know there was a lot of voter fraud going down at TCF in Michigan, so we’re going there for support, a caravan of us, and we’re going to support our president,” she said on WWJ 950.
No evidence of voter fraud has been discovered despite Trump’s repeated claims, and lawsuits with that allegation have been tossed out in Michigan and across the country. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has affirmed repeatedly the voting process was fair and transparent, and says any lie to the contrary is an attack on democracy.
Still, a large crowd of supporters is expected to converge to march from the Supreme Court to the White House. “I think it’s going to be quite large from what I’m hearing, don’t have an estimate for you,” White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany told Fox News when asked about the event.
The main gathering is scheduled to start at the Freedom Plaza in downtown Washington, D.C., at 12 p.m. with a march to the Supreme Court at 2 p.m.
DCish reports groups involved include Stop the Steal DC, the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers, according to a report by DCist. But for Bomer, turning out is less about a cause and more about a man.
“Trump is amazing, he’s not a politician. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, they’re politicians. They know how to do all the dirtiness. Trump was sent here to make American great and he was doing a great job,” Bomer said.
Bomer added she doesn’t believe election officials when they say the vote wasn’t tampered with. “I would say they don’t know what they’re talking about and we’ll just wait and see,” she said. “We have court cases pending and right now we’re putting it in front of justices to be accurate and precise and get to the truth.”
A counterprotest called “F— MAGA” has also been planned to happen nearby. (source)


shoebat--2020-11-14--Why Catholics Become Nazis

Why Catholics Become Nazis

I have been thinking about a particular phenomena for years now : why would a Catholic be inclined towards Nazism @ @ @ @ @ this video :

Pakistani Government Signs Law That Would Put People In Prison For Life For "Blaspheming" Muhammad The government of Pakistan just signed a law that could...


shoebat--2020-11-14--The Problem With Idealism

The Problem With Idealism

Some of my thoughts on the problems with idealism :


shoebat--2020-11-14--Thoughts On The Nature Of Evil

Thoughts On The Nature Of Evil

Some of my thoughts on the essence of evil :


shoebat--2020-11-14--Will The Next Russian-Backed Conflict Start On A Strip Of Land In Moldova?

Some countries are big .
Some can be small .
Some are just for leverage between other powers .
These “ countries ” are often used as geopolitical tools in manipulating particular ends for larger nations .
Examples currently include Abkhazia , South Ossetia , Lugansk , Donetsk , Catalonia , Flanders , and Walonia .
They are used by the US , Russia , Germany , and other powers alike for their ends .
However , another such example of a republic less known but that may be a similar type is the “ republic ” of Transnistria , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the size of Rhode Island along the Moldova-Ukraine border that only Russia and other of such Russian-backed separatist “ states ” support , and which also has the Russian flag for her flag and whose official language is Russian ( as opposed to Ukrainian or Romanian ) .
However , according to Pravda , it appears that Russia may go back to supporting “ Transnistrian nationalism ” as a part of the same power games being played by the western powers in Eastern Europe .
Do Western puppeteers expect that new forces will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reconfigure this political system , and it will be more Western-oriented ?
– Yes , but to some extent there is still a calculation to hit on the image of Russia in this region .
The main protest wave should begin on election day , according to the organizers .
Nobody hides it .
For example , Nastase , who retired from the presidential candidates , openly offered strong men to sign up , prepare groups , and he agreed to lead these groups .
Combatants – veterans of the 1992 war – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there were riots in Chisinau , they promised to cut off the heads of the separatists .
But then they met with a serious rebuff from the Moldovan police .
Now the combatants say that they will block all the polling stations that are organized for the Transnistrian vote .
So the danger is real .
Moreover , the security structures of Moldova and Transnistria are simultaneously on the line of contact in the security zone .
If riots break out there , both must react .
A very serious and dangerous situation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ area of responsibility of Russia .
After all , the peacekeeping operation is carried out under its auspices .
They have been trying to squeeze the Russian peacekeeping operation out of Moldova for a decade .
And in the event of large-scale unrest , it will immediately be possible to say that this is an ineffective peacekeeping operation .
See what ’ s going on at the border .
How did they let this happen ?
– Is it possible that the situation will be brought to the South Ossetian scenario , what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ begin , then Russia will be forced to react to this by force .
Is Russia being pushed to this ?
– Maybe they are pushing to do just that .
Pridnestrovian Foreign Minister Vitaly Ignatiev posted on Facebook a message from Oleg Belyakov , co-chairman of the Pridnestrovian side in the Joint Control Commission .
( source ) Russia looking to move into this area is just another attempt to do a Soviet-style “ spread ” like what happened last century across Eastern Europe and Central Asia .
History is dangerously close @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this applies to all sides Donate now to help support the work of this site .
When you donate , you are not donating to just any commentary group , but one that is endlessly observing the news , reading between the lines and separating hysteria and perception from reality .
In shoebat.com , we are working every day , tirelessly investigating global trends and providing data and analysis to tell you what lies for the future .
CLICK HERE TO FOLLOW OUR NEW SHOEBAT FACEBOOK PAGE

Some countries are big. Some can be small. Some are just for leverage between other powers. These “countries” are often used as geopolitical tools in manipulating particular ends for larger nations. Examples currently include Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Lugansk, Donetsk, Catalonia, Flanders, and Walonia. They are used by the US, Russia, Germany, and other powers alike for their ends.
However, another such example of a republic less known but that may be a similar type is the “republic” of Transnistria, which is just a strip of land the size of Rhode Island along the Moldova-Ukraine border that only Russia and other of such Russian-backed separatist “states” support, and which also has the Russian flag for her flag and whose official language is Russian (as opposed to Ukrainian or Romanian). However, according to Pravda, it appears that Russia may go back to supporting “Transnistrian nationalism” as a part of the same power games being played by the western powers in Eastern Europe.
Do Western puppeteers expect that new forces will appear on the revolutionary wave that will reconfigure this political system, and it will be more Western-oriented? – Yes, but to some extent there is still a calculation to hit on the image of Russia in this region. The main protest wave should begin on election day, according to the organizers. Nobody hides it. For example, Nastase, who retired from the presidential candidates, openly offered strong men to sign up, prepare groups, and he agreed to lead these groups. Combatants – veterans of the 1992 war – rehearsed it in the summer. Then there were riots in Chisinau, they promised to cut off the heads of the separatists. But then they met with a serious rebuff from the Moldovan police. Now the combatants say that they will block all the polling stations that are organized for the Transnistrian vote. So the danger is real. … Moreover, the security structures of Moldova and Transnistria are simultaneously on the line of contact in the security zone. If riots break out there, both must react. A very serious and dangerous situation will develop. And this is the area of responsibility of Russia. After all, the peacekeeping operation is carried out under its auspices. They have been trying to squeeze the Russian peacekeeping operation out of Moldova for a decade. And in the event of large-scale unrest, it will immediately be possible to say that this is an ineffective peacekeeping operation. See what’s going on at the border. How did they let this happen? – Is it possible that the situation will be brought to the South Ossetian scenario, what do you think? If such events begin, then Russia will be forced to react to this by force. Is Russia being pushed to this? – Maybe they are pushing to do just that. Pridnestrovian Foreign Minister Vitaly Ignatiev posted on Facebook a message from Oleg Belyakov, co-chairman of the Pridnestrovian side in the Joint Control Commission. (source)
Russia looking to move into this area is just another attempt to do a Soviet-style “spread” like what happened last century across Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
History is dangerously close to repeating, once again, and this applies to all sides
print


shoebat--2020-11-14--Fed Prepares To DOUBLE Money Printing In 2021

I have been saying over and over and over at Shoebat.com that the problem with the economy is the debt , and that the government has only one solution through her private bank ( the Federal Reserve ) which is printing money , and they WILL print for political reasons until the currency is worthless because of the debt .
I can not stress this enough- the debt problems are systematic , they are privy to no political party alone , and whichever party is in office is going to get blamed for the debt .
This is “ hot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but with real people and real lives .
Unfortunately , it appears that this pattern is going to continue , as according to Zero Hedge the Federal Reserve Bank is going to double its monetary printing efforts , financializing essentially all its monetary supply in 2021 alone .
One certainly can ’ t blame the Fed for not doing enough to stabilize markets during the covid crisis : having expanded its balance sheet by over $ 3 trillion this year alone and injecting $ 120 billion in liquidity every month , the US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corporate bonds and junk bond ETFs – remains the first and last line of defense for any equity drawdown .
As an aside , and for those asking why the Fed continues to “ confuse ” markets with the economy , the answer is simple : since the value of financial assets in the US economy at a record 620 % + of GDP , for the Fed capital markets are the functional equivalent of the economy since a market crash would destroy the highly financialized US economy , and thus can never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ problem : after a year in which the US budget deficit hit a record $ 3.1 trillion , and with the US facing a deluge in new debt issuance in 2021 which has already led to the biggest October deficit on record and which at $ 284 billion suggests another full-year deficit of well over $ 3 trillion ( assuming no further lockdowns ) .
As Bank of America ’ s Michael Hartnett calculated in his latest Flow Show report published on Friday , over the next year , “ Treasury supply will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Q1 ” , and this is even without factoring in the possibility of another major fiscal stimulus .
The problem : while the Treasury faces net Treasury issuance of roughly $ 2.4 trillion , the Fed is expect to monetize less than half of this total , or $ 960 billion .
Considering that in 2020 under the auspices of “ helicopter money ” ( from which we remind readers there is simply no coming back ) the Fed will have monetized virtually every dollar of net issuance , this is a huge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a shock drop in Treasury prices if the market reprices ( lower ) its expectations for Fed monetizations .
In short : the Fed needs to more than double its scheduled monthly QE in 2021 just to catch up to where it was in 2020 .
Of course , other central banks are facing the same challenge of insufficient monetization and some have already taken appropriate steps : recently both the RBA and BoE announced an expansion in their QE .
Just next month , the ECB is also expected to announce a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as Variant Perception writes , the central bank “ may end up absorbing all government supply in 2021 ” : The ECB has provided a clear indication that additional stimulus will come in December .
A further expansion of PEPP could result in the ECB purchasing most , if not all , of the EGB supply in 2021 .
( source ) I can not say this enough- a currency crisis IS INEVITABLE at this point .
It was avoidable ( albeit with a serious deflationary depression ) UNTIL Trump signed the COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nail in the coffin ” that not only transition the US economy from “ capitalism ” to outright fascism ( the merging of state and corporate power by way of the conditions for corporate bailouts ) , but that will force future government policy , for political reasons ( barring a VERY MORALLY STRONG president willing to sacrifice himself and his party for the good of the nation long-term , which is always highly an unlikely scenario ) WILL cause hyperinflation .
Trump should be on his knees THANKING that he is likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next four years , since while the man may be a sore loser and complain , he is NOT going to get blamed for the debt issues .
There is a strong chance this will fall on Biden and , given Biden ’ s very poor health , possibly on Kamala ’ s shoulders .
If this does , it could be a death blow to the Democrat party , as they will go down in history as the party that “ bankrupted ” America .
Donate now to help support the work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , you are not donating to just any commentary group , but one that is endlessly observing the news , reading between the lines and separating hysteria and perception from reality .
In shoebat.com , we are working every day , tirelessly investigating global trends and providing data and analysis to tell you what lies for the future .
CLICK HERE TO FOLLOW OUR NEW SHOEBAT FACEBOOK PAGE

I have been saying over and over and over at Shoebat.com that the problem with the economy is the debt, and that the government has only one solution through her private bank (the Federal Reserve) which is printing money, and they WILL print for political reasons until the currency is worthless because of the debt.
I cannot stress this enough- the debt problems are systematic, they are privy to no political party alone, and whichever party is in office is going to get blamed for the debt. This is “hot potato” or “musical chairs” but with real people and real lives.
Unfortunately, it appears that this pattern is going to continue, as according to Zero Hedge the Federal Reserve Bank is going to double its monetary printing efforts, financializing essentially all its monetary supply in 2021 alone.
One certainly can’t blame the Fed for not doing enough to stabilize markets during the covid crisis: having expanded its balance sheet by over $3 trillion this year alone and injecting $120 billion in liquidity every month, the US central bank – which is also buying corporate bonds and junk bond ETFs – remains the first and last line of defense for any equity drawdown. As an aside, and for those asking why the Fed continues to “confuse” markets with the economy, the answer is simple: since the value of financial assets in the US economy at a record 620%+ of GDP, for the Fed capital markets are the functional equivalent of the economy since a market crash would destroy the highly financialized US economy, and thus can never be allowed. There is just one problem: after a year in which the US budget deficit hit a record $3.1 trillion, and with the US facing a deluge in new debt issuance in 2021 which has already led to the biggest October deficit on record and which at $284 billion suggests another full-year deficit of well over $3 trillion (assuming no further lockdowns). As Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett calculated in his latest Flow Show report published on Friday, over the next year, “Treasury supply will significantly outstrip Fed purchases in Q4 & Q1”, and this is even without factoring in the possibility of another major fiscal stimulus. The problem: while the Treasury faces net Treasury issuance of roughly $2.4 trillion, the Fed is expect to monetize less than half of this total, or $960 billion. Considering that in 2020 under the auspices of “helicopter money” (from which we remind readers there is simply no coming back) the Fed will have monetized virtually every dollar of net issuance, this is a huge cliff and one which could lead to a shock drop in Treasury prices if the market reprices (lower) its expectations for Fed monetizations. In short: the Fed needs to more than double its scheduled monthly QE in 2021 just to catch up to where it was in 2020. Of course, other central banks are facing the same challenge of insufficient monetization and some have already taken appropriate steps: recently both the RBA and BoE announced an expansion in their QE. Just next month, the ECB is also expected to announce a dramatic expansion of its QE operations and as Variant Perception writes, the central bank “may end up absorbing all government supply in 2021”: The ECB has provided a clear indication that additional stimulus will come in December. A further expansion of PEPP could result in the ECB purchasing most, if not all, of the EGB supply in 2021. (source)
I cannot say this enough- a currency crisis IS INEVITABLE at this point. It was avoidable (albeit with a serious deflationary depression) UNTIL Trump signed the COVID-19 stimulus bill. That was the “nail in the coffin” that not only transition the US economy from “capitalism” to outright fascism (the merging of state and corporate power by way of the conditions for corporate bailouts), but that will force future government policy, for political reasons (barring a VERY MORALLY STRONG president willing to sacrifice himself and his party for the good of the nation long-term, which is always highly an unlikely scenario) WILL cause hyperinflation.
Trump should be on his knees THANKING that he is likely not going to be in office the next four years, since while the man may be a sore loser and complain, he is NOT going to get blamed for the debt issues. There is a strong chance this will fall on Biden and, given Biden’s very poor health, possibly on Kamala’s shoulders. If this does, it could be a death blow to the Democrat party, as they will go down in history as the party that “bankrupted” America.
print


shoebat--2020-11-14--CRASH: 80% Of New York City Hotels Face Bankruptcy

I have said that there is going to be a huge day of reckoning , economically speaking , due to the effects of COVId-19 .
One of these is happening right now in New York , where the Big Apple is going rotten as 80 % of hotels face bankruptcy , including iconic ones .
Normally among most vibrant of global hotel markets , New York has been hammered the coronavirus pandemic has left business travel and tourism deeply depressed ravaging cash flows .
The effects have ricocheted into financial markets and hit the nearly $ 4bn of hotel mortgages @ @ @ @ @ @ @ commercial mortgage-backed securities particularly hard .
The virus has also compounded years of overbuilding and created a glut of vacant hotel rooms .
And while the prospect of a coronavirus vaccine , following this week ’ s breakthrough by Pfizer and Germany ’ s BioNTech , offers a glimmer of hope , it is unlikely to come soon and avert a bleak winter for hotel owners and the investors that lent them money .
“ But it ’ s fickle , ” he said .
“ Realistically we aren ’ t going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
.
.
The industry is really bleeding .
It ’ s not just on life support , it ’ s comatose.
” For proof look no further than the latest data out of CRE consultants TREPP , according to which 37.7 % of all New York hotels underpinning CMBS deals now sit on a watchlist meant to warn investors a mortgage is about be transferred to debt collectors known as special servicers .
A loan may be added to the watchlist for a number of reasons , such as if the borrower @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have recently missed a payment on their mortgage .
In any case , once it hits special servicing , the loan is effectively in default unless the debtor and creditor manage to work out some agreement where the debt will remain “ whole ” after some pre-agreed restructuring .
What ’ s scarier is that a further 44.7 % of loans have already been transferred to special servicers to either find a way to get borrowers paying their mortgage or to foreclose on the properties .
Together , it means more than 80 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ backing CMBS deals , approximately $ 3.1bn , are impacted adversely from coronavirus , far more than the national average of 71 % .
“ It ’ s terrible .
There is no demand right now , ” Manus Clancy , head of research at Trepp told the FT. “ We ’ re going into a period of time when you would normally expect demand to be high .
It ’ s the holiday season .
People want to come to New York .
They want to see the Thanksgiving parade and see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s now going to be a very dark time.
” ( source )

I have said that there is going to be a huge day of reckoning, economically speaking, due to the effects of COVId-19. One of these is happening right now in New York, where the Big Apple is going rotten as 80% of hotels face bankruptcy, including iconic ones.
Normally among most vibrant of global hotel markets, New York has been hammered the coronavirus pandemic has left business travel and tourism deeply depressed ravaging cash flows. The effects have ricocheted into financial markets and hit the nearly $4bn of hotel mortgages in New York that are bundled into commercial mortgage-backed securities particularly hard.
The virus has also compounded years of overbuilding and created a glut of vacant hotel rooms. And while the prospect of a coronavirus vaccine, following this week’s breakthrough by Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech, offers a glimmer of hope, it is unlikely to come soon and avert a bleak winter for hotel owners and the investors that lent them money.
…
“But it’s fickle,” he said. “Realistically we aren’t going to see any improvement until the second quarter . . . The industry is really bleeding. It’s not just on life support, it’s comatose.”
For proof look no further than the latest data out of CRE consultants TREPP, according to which 37.7% of all New York hotels underpinning CMBS deals now sit on a watchlist meant to warn investors a mortgage is about be transferred to debt collectors known as special servicers. A loan may be added to the watchlist for a number of reasons, such as if the borrower’s income has dropped or they have recently missed a payment on their mortgage. In any case, once it hits special servicing, the loan is effectively in default unless the debtor and creditor manage to work out some agreement where the debt will remain “whole” after some pre-agreed restructuring.
What’s scarier is that a further 44.7% of loans have already been transferred to special servicers to either find a way to get borrowers paying their mortgage or to foreclose on the properties.
Together, it means more than 80% of the city’s hotels backing CMBS deals, approximately $3.1bn, are impacted adversely from coronavirus, far more than the national average of 71%.
“It’s terrible. There is no demand right now,” Manus Clancy, head of research at Trepp told the FT. “We’re going into a period of time when you would normally expect demand to be high. It’s the holiday season. People want to come to New York. They want to see the Thanksgiving parade and see the store fronts and go to Broadway. It’s now going to be a very dark time.” (source)


shoebat--2020-11-14--Mary Trump: ‘Donald Will Not Run Again In 2024’

President Trump ’ s niece Mary Trump made news earlier this year with a book describing family problems and other issues in President Trump ’ s life , and according to a recent interview with her reported on by Mediaite , Trump will not run again in 2024 amid what are a series of serious health problems that he has due to a poor diet , inactive lifestyle , untreated mental issues , and possibly legal charges .
Mary Trump , the niece of President Donald Trump and author of a brutal tell-all book about his upbringing , scoffed at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2024 , telling CNN ’ s Chris Cuomo that the president would “ never put himself in a position where he can lose like this again.
” Like many other commentators , Mary Trump criticized Republican Senators for “ enabling ” her uncle ’ s refusal to concede the race , calling it a “ dangerous situation ” because he was “ capable of anything.
” “ This is the awful part of this , ” she said .
“ He should have been rendered completely irrelevant by now .
Whether he concedes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ matter .
It ’ s up to the Republicans to say it ’ s over , we ’ re moving on .
As long as they don ’ t do that , they continue to give him power .
They continue to give him the ability to rile up his base and other people who voted for him.
” “ They ’ re making an incredible miscalculation here by pretending that they can control this monster that they ’ re unleashing upon us , ” the president ’ s niece added , “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contemplate ?
” Cuomo replied .
“ Do you think he would run again ?
He can.
” “ Yes , he can — thank you , Grover Cleveland !
” she quipped , before answering , that no , she did not think that he would , saying that any discussion that he was considering running in 2024 was just something that was “ floated initially as a way to appease him and assuage his ego.
” “ But he will never put himself in a position where he can lose like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” she said .
“ Secondly , it would mean for four years that he is playing essentially a supporting role , which will be very difficult for him to sustain.
” She went even further , predicting that President Trump would be unable to run again in four years , either due to health or legal concerns : “ And you know , most importantly , in four years he will be the same age Joe Biden is now .
However , Donald is a very unhealthy person .
He has a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exercise .
And he has , you know , psychological disorders that continue to go untreated .
So I don ’ t even imagine that he ’ ll be able to run in four years .
Plus the fact of course he may be looking at serious charges being brought against him.
” ( source )

President Trump’s niece Mary Trump made news earlier this year with a book describing family problems and other issues in President Trump’s life, and according to a recent interview with her reported on by Mediaite, Trump will not run again in 2024 amid what are a series of serious health problems that he has due to a poor diet, inactive lifestyle, untreated mental issues, and possibly legal charges.
Mary Trump, the niece of President Donald Trump and author of a brutal tell-all book about his upbringing, scoffed at suggestions that he will run again in 2024, telling CNN’s Chris Cuomo that the president would “never put himself in a position where he can lose like this again.”
Like many other commentators, Mary Trump criticized Republican Senators for “enabling” her uncle’s refusal to concede the race, calling it a “dangerous situation” because he was “capable of anything.”
“This is the awful part of this,” she said. “He should have been rendered completely irrelevant by now. Whether he concedes or not, it doesn’t matter. It’s up to the Republicans to say it’s over, we’re moving on. As long as they don’t do that, they continue to give him power. They continue to give him the ability to rile up his base and other people who voted for him.”
“They’re making an incredible miscalculation here by pretending that they can control this monster that they’re unleashing upon us,” the president’s niece added,
…
“You don’t even want to contemplate?” Cuomo replied. “Do you think he would run again? He can.”
“Yes, he can — thank you, Grover Cleveland!” she quipped, before answering, that no, she did not think that he would, saying that any discussion that he was considering running in 2024 was just something that was “floated initially as a way to appease him and assuage his ego.”
“But he will never put himself in a position where he can lose like this again, first of all,” she said. “Secondly, it would mean for four years that he is playing essentially a supporting role, which will be very difficult for him to sustain.”
She went even further, predicting that President Trump would be unable to run again in four years, either due to health or legal concerns:
“And you know, most importantly, in four years he will be the same age Joe Biden is now. However, Donald is a very unhealthy person. He has a terrible diet. He doesn’t exercise. And he has, you know, psychological disorders that continue to go untreated. So I don’t even imagine that he’ll be able to run in four years. Plus the fact of course he may be looking at serious charges being brought against him.” (source)


shoebat--2020-11-16--German Government Tells Citizens To Brace For Four To Five Months Of Lockdowns

I have reported for a while now on the sayings of Niklas Frank , son of the former Nazi governor of Poland Hans Frank , that if Germany was to have a serious economic recession , the democracy , ‘ tolerance ’ , and stability that the world associates with Germany would quickly turn into despotism and the nation would return to the aggressive form that she assumed during the First and Second World Wars .
This is a serious trend to watch for , and a dangerous one , since if anybody could give an insightful commentary into German @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As I have noted , the COVID crisis has been very serious not because of the disease , but what it has done to a debt-laden world economy in forcing serious debt accounts and fiscal reckonings to be examined .
The US is the most serious , but it also includes other nations with large economies , of which Germany is one and will be heavily affected .
More lockdowns will most likely not , from an economic perspective , help the world economies fix , but only expose more and force @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Given this trend of a “ snowballing ” effect , it will only push the world further down the road to an economic cliff , culminating most likely in a serious crash of the world ’ s economies ( of which the US will be the best poised to survive because of her currency status ) , which will lead to a political realigment of priorities , and in the case of Germany , likely to economic revitalization through militarization and then war .
As such , it is with great interest that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to five months of lockdowns may be expected in the near future .
Germans should brace for another 4-5 months of severe measures to halt the rise in coronavirus infections and should not expect the current rules to be eased quickly , Economy Minister Peter Altmaier told weekly Bild am Sonntag .
“ We ’ re not out of the woods yet ” , he said referring to infection numbers .
“ We can not afford a yo-yo shutdown with the economy constantly opening and closing.
” Germany has imposed a set of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to rein in the second wave of the pandemic that the country is seeing in common with much of the rest of Europe .
While restaurants are closed , schools and shops so far remain open .
Data from the Robert Koch Institute ( RKI ) for infectious diseases showed on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in Germany increased by 16,947 to 790,503 .
Weekend figures tend to be lower as not all data is reported by local authorities .
Altmaier said Germany should be wary of relaxing restrictions too quickly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want days with 50,000 new infections , as was the case in France a few weeks ago , we must see through this and not constantly speculate about which measures can be relaxed again , ” he told Bild am Sonntag .
“ All countries that lifted their restrictions too early have so far paid a high price in terms of human lives lost.
” His comments echoed those of other leading German policy makers .
Among others , Health Minister Jens Spahn said at an online event of Chancellor Angela Merkel ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks , possibly even months , lie ahead .
( source ) I don ’ t want to underemphasize the serious nature of this disease , because it certainly is serious , or the likelihood of second and third waves of perhaps a more deadly strain .
What I do want to emphasize , however , is that no matter what the actual effects caused directly by COVD are , there is a far greater chance that the secondary effects- the economic fallout , the political problems linked to the economic problems -will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it has the potential to create a “ domino effect ” , where one falling piece triggers a series of falling pieces not connected to the first one directly but directly affected through the actions of unrelated parts moving at the same time .
Donate now to help support the work of this site .
When you donate , you are not donating to just any commentary group , but one that is endlessly observing the news , reading between the lines and separating hysteria and perception from reality .
In shoebat.com , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investigating global trends and providing data and analysis to tell you what lies for the future .
CLICK HERE TO FOLLOW OUR NEW SHOEBAT FACEBOOK PAGE

I have reported for a while now on the sayings of Niklas Frank, son of the former Nazi governor of Poland Hans Frank, that if Germany was to have a serious economic recession, the democracy, ‘tolerance’, and stability that the world associates with Germany would quickly turn into despotism and the nation would return to the aggressive form that she assumed during the First and Second World Wars. This is a serious trend to watch for, and a dangerous one, since if anybody could give an insightful commentary into German history, it would be Mr. Frank.
As I have noted, the COVID crisis has been very serious not because of the disease, but what it has done to a debt-laden world economy in forcing serious debt accounts and fiscal reckonings to be examined. The US is the most serious, but it also includes other nations with large economies, of which Germany is one and will be heavily affected. More lockdowns will most likely not, from an economic perspective, help the world economies fix, but only expose more and force more reckoning with largely unsolvable problems. Given this trend of a “snowballing” effect, it will only push the world further down the road to an economic cliff, culminating most likely in a serious crash of the world’s economies (of which the US will be the best poised to survive because of her currency status), which will lead to a political realigment of priorities, and in the case of Germany, likely to economic revitalization through militarization and then war.
As such, it is with great interest that the German government is saying that four to five months of lockdowns may be expected in the near future.
Germans should brace for another 4-5 months of severe measures to halt the rise in coronavirus infections and should not expect the current rules to be eased quickly, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier told weekly Bild am Sonntag. “We’re not out of the woods yet”, he said referring to infection numbers. “We cannot afford a yo-yo shutdown with the economy constantly opening and closing.” Germany has imposed a set of measures dubbed a “lockdown light” to rein in the second wave of the pandemic that the country is seeing in common with much of the rest of Europe. While restaurants are closed, schools and shops so far remain open. Data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for infectious diseases showed on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in Germany increased by 16,947 to 790,503. Weekend figures tend to be lower as not all data is reported by local authorities. Altmaier said Germany should be wary of relaxing restrictions too quickly. “If we don’t want days with 50,000 new infections, as was the case in France a few weeks ago, we must see through this and not constantly speculate about which measures can be relaxed again,” he told Bild am Sonntag. “All countries that lifted their restrictions too early have so far paid a high price in terms of human lives lost.” His comments echoed those of other leading German policy makers. Among others, Health Minister Jens Spahn said at an online event of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative party on Saturday that hard weeks, possibly even months, lie ahead. (source)
I don’t want to underemphasize the serious nature of this disease, because it certainly is serious, or the likelihood of second and third waves of perhaps a more deadly strain. What I do want to emphasize, however, is that no matter what the actual effects caused directly by COVD are, there is a far greater chance that the secondary effects- the economic fallout, the political problems linked to the economic problems -will be far more serious and long-lasting because it has the potential to create a “domino effect”, where one falling piece triggers a series of falling pieces not connected to the first one directly but directly affected through the actions of unrelated parts moving at the same time.
print


shoebat--2020-11-16--Mass Exodus From New York City Continues

One of the trends that I have noted is that for the time , major urban areas are seeing a sort of exodus .
This does not mean they are disappearing , for long-term trends suggest that the opposite is taking place .
Rather , what is forming are “ megaregions ” in the sense of mega urban centers with sprawl going out for long distances that are subsequently surrounded by nothing .
However , this also corresponds to a change in cities where amid fear of COVID-19 and increasing violence , those who can are leaving for the ‘ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are tending to resemble something of a dystopia from a science fiction story .
The New York Post reports on this , noting that for their case of New York , a ‘ mass exodus ’ is taking place as at least 300,000 people , or about 2 % of the city , has left for better areas .
More than 300,000 New Yorkers have bailed from the Big Apple in the last eight months , new stats show .
City residents filed 295,103 change of address requests from March 1 through Oct. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ obtained from the US Postal Service under a Freedom of Information Act request .
Since the data details only when 11 or more forwarding requests were made to a particular county outside NYC , the number of moves is actually higher .
And a single address change could represent an entire household , which means far more than 300,000 New Yorkers fled the five boroughs .
Whatever the exact number , the exodus — which began when COVID-19 hit the city in early spring — is much greater than in prior years .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ were 244,895 change of address requests to destinations outside the city , more than double the 101,342 during the same period in 2019 .
( source ) Now this is not going to endure forever .
This trend exists largely because of COVID , and it is expected that given the problems with jobs and the economy , the trend will be towards larger cities .
Likewise , since COVID is being touted as a factor that is changing how people live , it will be of interest to see how COVID affects @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people relate with each other in public , how businesses serve others , and how business functions for the future .
Donate now to help support the work of this site .
When you donate , you are not donating to just any commentary group , but one that is endlessly observing the news , reading between the lines and separating hysteria and perception from reality .
In shoebat.com , we are working every day , tirelessly investigating global trends and providing data and analysis to tell you what lies for the future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ SHOEBAT FACEBOOK PAGE

One of the trends that I have noted is that for the time, major urban areas are seeing a sort of exodus. This does not mean they are disappearing, for long-term trends suggest that the opposite is taking place. Rather, what is forming are “megaregions” in the sense of mega urban centers with sprawl going out for long distances that are subsequently surrounded by nothing. However, this also corresponds to a change in cities where amid fear of COVID-19 and increasing violence, those who can are leaving for the ‘new outskirts’ while the city centers are tending to resemble something of a dystopia from a science fiction story. The New York Post reports on this, noting that for their case of New York, a ‘mass exodus’ is taking place as at least 300,000 people, or about 2% of the city, has left for better areas.
More than 300,000 New Yorkers have bailed from the Big Apple in the last eight months, new stats show. City residents filed 295,103 change of address requests from March 1 through Oct. 31, according to data The Post obtained from the US Postal Service under a Freedom of Information Act request. Since the data details only when 11 or more forwarding requests were made to a particular county outside NYC, the number of moves is actually higher. And a single address change could represent an entire household, which means far more than 300,000 New Yorkers fled the five boroughs. Whatever the exact number, the exodus — which began when COVID-19 hit the city in early spring — is much greater than in prior years. From just March through July, there were 244,895 change of address requests to destinations outside the city, more than double the 101,342 during the same period in 2019. (source)
Now this is not going to endure forever. This trend exists largely because of COVID, and it is expected that given the problems with jobs and the economy, the trend will be towards larger cities. Likewise, since COVID is being touted as a factor that is changing how people live, it will be of interest to see how COVID affects trends human interactions, such as how people relate with each other in public, how businesses serve others, and how business functions for the future.
print


shoebat--2020-11-16--Is The US Opening The Way For Turkey Into Syria?

Historically speaking , Syria has been dominated by many powers , and for about five centuries was under the control of her norther neighbor of Turkey under the Ottomans .
In recent years , Syria has seen a US military presence owing to the wars in Iraq and Syria .
However , as Al-Masdar news reports , an interesting change may be under way as the US is withdrawing troops from Syria to Iraq .
The U.S. army withdrew a number of its vehicles and soldiers from eastern Syria towards the northern region of Iraq , while it imposed a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor .
According to a Sputnik Arabic correspondent in Al-Hasakah , the U.S. army transported a number of military vehicles with about 50 soldiers from its illegal base in Al-Malikiyah to the northern region of Iraq for the second time during the past two days .
These developments coincide with media reports about the current U.S. administration ’ s intention to withdraw its soldiers from eastern Syria , especially after the changes made by U.S. President Donald Trump , which included the firing of Defense Secretary Mark Esper , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Earlier this week , it was revealed that the outgoing U.S. envoy to Syria , James Jeffrey , had kept the total number of troops inside the Arab Republic from Trump .
( source ) Now it is true that nothing was mentioned here about Turkey .
Yet , given the trends in the Middle East , this is what may happen .
Turkey is a regional and world power , imperially speaking , and wants to rise again , having been rebuilt by the Americans and the Germans .
She has one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world , and given her proximity to Syria and her long history of occupying Syria , it is only natural that she would attempt to invade her , and indeed she already has , for there have been many reports of Turkish troops entering into Syria and occupying her .
Power always abhors a vacuum , and in the Middle East , given the number of competing entities , vacuums are immediately filled by the strongest available player .
In this case , it would be Turkey .
What is happening here ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ other than a US withdrawal .
But given the trends of a rising Turkish power and empire , a US withdrawal opens the way only for a region to be filled by the Ottoman power .
Donate now to help support the work of this site .
When you donate , you are not donating to just any commentary group , but one that is endlessly observing the news , reading between the lines and separating hysteria and perception from reality .
In shoebat.com , we are working every day , tirelessly investigating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to tell you what lies for the future .
CLICK HERE TO FOLLOW OUR NEW SHOEBAT FACEBOOK PAGE

Historically speaking, Syria has been dominated by many powers, and for about five centuries was under the control of her norther neighbor of Turkey under the Ottomans. In recent years, Syria has seen a US military presence owing to the wars in Iraq and Syria. However, as Al-Masdar news reports, an interesting change may be under way as the US is withdrawing troops from Syria to Iraq.
The U.S. army withdrew a number of its vehicles and soldiers from eastern Syria towards the northern region of Iraq, while it imposed a security cordon around a town in the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor. According to a Sputnik Arabic correspondent in Al-Hasakah, the U.S. army transported a number of military vehicles with about 50 soldiers from its illegal base in Al-Malikiyah to the northern region of Iraq for the second time during the past two days. These developments coincide with media reports about the current U.S. administration’s intention to withdraw its soldiers from eastern Syria, especially after the changes made by U.S. President Donald Trump, which included the firing of Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who was replaced by Christopher Miller. Earlier this week, it was revealed that the outgoing U.S. envoy to Syria, James Jeffrey, had kept the total number of troops inside the Arab Republic from Trump. (source)
Now it is true that nothing was mentioned here about Turkey. Yet, given the trends in the Middle East, this is what may happen.
Turkey is a regional and world power, imperially speaking, and wants to rise again, having been rebuilt by the Americans and the Germans. She has one of the most powerful militaries in the world, and given her proximity to Syria and her long history of occupying Syria, it is only natural that she would attempt to invade her, and indeed she already has, for there have been many reports of Turkish troops entering into Syria and occupying her.
Power always abhors a vacuum, and in the Middle East, given the number of competing entities, vacuums are immediately filled by the strongest available player. In this case, it would be Turkey.
What is happening here? One cannot say for sure save other than a US withdrawal. But given the trends of a rising Turkish power and empire, a US withdrawal opens the way only for a region to be filled by the Ottoman power.
print


shoebat--2020-11-16--Is AI Approaching Human Intelligence Levels?

What is Artificial Intelligence ?
How does it work ?
Scientists can not even understand how the process works , yet so much has been entrusted to it , from the completion of common tasks to the creation of computer scripts and major defense system maintenance .
At this rate and given these trends , one can only ask , when will AI surpass levels of human intelligence ?
This is a wholly reasonable question , and to that , a recent article from the Financial Times discussed a new system , GPT-3 , which is being lauded by some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ akin to humans .
Such concerns about how best to manage these powerful tools mean that OpenAI only released GPT-3 in a controlled environment .
“ GPT-3 was not a model we wanted to put out into the world and not be able to change how we enforce things as we go , ” Altman says .
Some 2,000 companies have now been given access to it in a controlled private beta test .
Their learnings as they explore its capabilities are being fed back into the model to make further improvements .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” and “ fabulous ” are just some of the reactions in the developer community .
David Chalmers , a professor at New York University and an expert on the philosophy of mind , has gone so far as to suggest GPT-3 is sophisticated enough to show rudimentary signs of consciousness .
“ I am open to the idea that a worm with 302 neurons is conscious , so I am open to the idea that GPT-3 with 175 billion parameters is conscious too , ” he wrote on the Daily Nous philosophy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in AI have resulted from building competitive , or adversarial , models that have outwitted humans at games such as chess or Go or Starcraft .
But researchers are now turning their attention towards building hybrid collaborative systems that combine the best of an AI model ’ s superhuman powers with human intuition .
According to Vallor , our own understanding is not an act but a process , a lifetime struggle to make sense of the world for the individual , and a never-ending collective endeavour for society that has evolved over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ better to understand justice and better express beauty and find ever more sophisticated ways of being funny for millennia .
This is a matter of going beyond competence into excellence and into forms of creativity and meaning that we have not achieved before .
“ That is why the holy grail for AI is not GPT‑3 , ” she continues .
“ It is a machine that can begin to develop a robust model of the world that can be built upon over time and refined and corrected through interaction with human beings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( source ) Conscious AI is both a joke and a danger at the same time .
It is a joke in that is presumes a materialistic existence in which the soul is something that can be programmed into a man , and this is never the case because man can not take God from a machine ( deus ex machina ) or put Him into a machine ( deus en machina ) .
Thus anything of a computer developing “ consciousness ” on its own is false .
However , there are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of malevolent programming ( “ malevolent AI ” ) , and from a Christian perspective , the possibility of hardware or software becoming demonically possessed/controlled .
In both cases , what one sees is either by way of human malice or misprogramming ( existential circumstances ) , or external spiritual evils ( the existence of the preternatural ) , that a compute turns against man and exhibits unnaturally high “ intelligence ” levels because of this .
Either way , remember that in the Terminator film series , the plot was tied to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was at the point that it launched a war against the human race .
AI is a major trend to watch for a third world war , since this will likely ( in combination with other technologies being developed ) determine the winner versus the loser .
However , it may also be , so much as is the case throughout history , that the very weapons man creates to ‘ defend ’ himself turn into the cause of his own downfall .
Donate now to help support the work of this site @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not donating to just any commentary group , but one that is endlessly observing the news , reading between the lines and separating hysteria and perception from reality .
In shoebat.com , we are working every day , tirelessly investigating global trends and providing data and analysis to tell you what lies for the future .
CLICK HERE TO FOLLOW OUR NEW SHOEBAT FACEBOOK PAGE

What is Artificial Intelligence? How does it work? Scientists cannot even understand how the process works, yet so much has been entrusted to it, from the completion of common tasks to the creation of computer scripts and major defense system maintenance. At this rate and given these trends, one can only ask, when will AI surpass levels of human intelligence?
This is a wholly reasonable question, and to that, a recent article from the Financial Times discussed a new system, GPT-3, which is being lauded by some as showing signs of “consciousness” akin to humans.
Such concerns about how best to manage these powerful tools mean that OpenAI only released GPT-3 in a controlled environment. “GPT-3 was not a model we wanted to put out into the world and not be able to change how we enforce things as we go,” Altman says. Some 2,000 companies have now been given access to it in a controlled private beta test. Their learnings as they explore its capabilities are being fed back into the model to make further improvements. “Mind-blowing”, “shockingly good” and “fabulous” are just some of the reactions in the developer community. David Chalmers, a professor at New York University and an expert on the philosophy of mind, has gone so far as to suggest GPT-3 is sophisticated enough to show rudimentary signs of consciousness. “I am open to the idea that a worm with 302 neurons is conscious, so I am open to the idea that GPT-3 with 175 billion parameters is conscious too,” he wrote on the Daily Nous philosophy site. … Many of the recent breakthroughs in AI have resulted from building competitive, or adversarial, models that have outwitted humans at games such as chess or Go or Starcraft. But researchers are now turning their attention towards building hybrid collaborative systems that combine the best of an AI model’s superhuman powers with human intuition. According to Vallor, our own understanding is not an act but a process, a lifetime struggle to make sense of the world for the individual, and a never-ending collective endeavour for society that has evolved over centuries. “We have been trying better to understand justice and better express beauty and find ever more sophisticated ways of being funny for millennia. This is a matter of going beyond competence into excellence and into forms of creativity and meaning that we have not achieved before. “That is why the holy grail for AI is not GPT‑3,” she continues. “It is a machine that can begin to develop a robust model of the world that can be built upon over time and refined and corrected through interaction with human beings. That is what we need.” (source)
Conscious AI is both a joke and a danger at the same time. It is a joke in that is presumes a materialistic existence in which the soul is something that can be programmed into a man, and this is never the case because man cannot take God from a machine (deus ex machina) or put Him into a machine (deus en machina). Thus anything of a computer developing “consciousness” on its own is false
AI is a major trend to watch for a third world war, since this will likely (in combination with other technologies being developed) determine the winner versus the loser. However, it may also be, so much as is the case throughout history, that the very weapons man creates to ‘defend’ himself can turn into the cause of his own downfall.
print