shoebat--2020-10-08--Twelve Observations On The State Of US Demographic Trends

Every ten years , since 1790 , the US government takes what is called the Census .
The length and extent of the questions have changed repeatedly over the years , but the principle is all the same throughout , which is to try and get an estimate of how many people live in the country , who they are , and from this , project based on local , state , and national estimates the makeup of the country and where it is heading .
The Census is one of those things that , while not inherently able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attempt to give a realistic perspective on society about as best as one is able to get , since its answers are pulled from people who live in your local communities and compiled with other data .
It is obvious why the government would have an interest in this for many reasons ( and not necessarily for bad ones ) .
The American political ‘ right wing ’ often likes to use the phrase “ Demography is destiny ” , and I must agree , this is true in so far as societies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who those people are and what they value determines how society changes .
This is the same reason why one sees laws enshrining anti-Christian practices ( such as homosexuality ) while also tendencies towards the long-term removal of firearms in spite of talk about the Second Amendment .
This is not because “ liberals have taken over ” - as though they were aliens from another planet and not fully human , or some strange creature from the deep -but they are people , and if they grow in number and influence , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beliefs because , unlike as how many would have it , man is not made for laws , but laws are made by men for men to help them understand their place in the world and how to relate to it in so far as the corpus of society is concerned , and these laws are not necessarily moral , but are intended to ( when used properly ) to meet the needs of the people they address .
This is why a law against alcohol , while popular at one time in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a constitutional amendment banning the sale of the substance , was eventually repealed by force and why such laws are easily enforced in Islamic nations , because for better or worse , there are different groups of people who have different needs .
Over a year ago , I applied to be a US Census taker as a job in order to get a feel for my local community and those areas surrounding me .
I did this because demographics is a part of my research here at Shoebat.com , and in contributing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a national level with official data , I would also be able to get a direct , personal sense of what is happening around me and be able to relay it to you .
By law , there is certain information I can not reveal .
As an added measure , I also will take my own precautions and note that I will not say the communities or states in which I worked .
However , I can say that I spanned both urban and rural communities throughout a region of the southeastern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ upon this .
They were not always pretty experiences either .
From having doors slammed shut in my face , to verbal threats , to being attacked by dogs , to having drug dealers sic their pitbulls at me , to having guns pulled on me twice , to being shot at once by a crazed man who looked like Timothy McVeigh ( not an exaggeration either ) , I experienced some of the best and worst of American society .
These are my findings .
I will try to keep them brief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I do not cite any sources for this .
Why do I not do this ?
Because my research as a part of the Census Bureau was itself the primary source for data obtained by way of speaking with the people first-hand .
After all , what is a better measure of what people think than by directly asking them ?
Some of these observations may sound controversial .
They are not intended to , and nothing is meant or implied by them to promote division .
Rather , I am looking to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ saw in the most charitable way possible , discussing the good , bad , and ugly , and what it means .
Here is a list of twelve observations as to what I found .
1 ) The Hispanic Demographic is growing by a lot and by not as much as you would think .
To give an impression of what I was working with , there were three main racial groups- White , Black , and “ Hispanic ” , the latter of which is not classified as a “ race ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spans multiple races ( there were other races , but I would say they were such a minority presence they were not statistically relevant for our discussion ) .
Thus one could be “ White and Hispanic ” versus “ White , Non-hispanic ” , and the same for Black or Asian .
When I speak of “ Hispanic ” , for my purposes , I am referring to people primarily from Mexico and Guatemala , as these were the main demographics in my region .
The Hispanic families were interesting because , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just “ drop anchor babies ” and have “ multiple fathers ” , this was not at all my experience .
There were some families with three and four children , but most had two , and there was either a mom and a dad at home , or a mom living with her family .
The support systems were clear and visible , even though many of them lived in visible poverty and worked at low-end jobs .
What I found looking at the Hispanic bloc that took me a minute to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not special at all .
In fact , they were so ‘ normal ’ in their appearance and life and the answers they gave that they were essentially what many ‘ working class Whites ’ seems to have reported ( based on my experience of reading past Census reports ) even just as recently as a few decades ago .
The fact that they had two and sometimes three children was not at all special- it was what the White and Black blocs used to do until the past few decades .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bloc has a fertility rate of about 2 to 2.1 children per woman , or just at or slightly below replacement rate .
This number would seem to make sense with what I saw .
This is why I say the demographic seems to be growing by ‘ a lot ’ and ‘ not much ’ at the same time , since they are not spectacular in their having children or family life , but rather , that the world has become so abnormal around the rest of society , that this bloc @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what ‘ normal life ’ used to look like and still does for many parts of the world and certainly the larger historical picture , but that it has been forgotten by so many amid the legitimization of the ridiculous as normal .
As I noted , many were clearly poor , but there were some in up-and-coming jobs , and even lived in ‘ nice ’ homes in ‘ nice ’ areas .
Likewise , among the younger people in the bloc , there seems to be a not large but clearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Whites , with a slight favor in relationships between White men and Hispanic Women than the reverse .
2 ) White fertility rates are in serious decline and the bloc is aging fast This is something that has been written about for a while , and as I noted before , nothing here is made in a racialized context , but rather an examination of reality .
The fact is that the White bloc has the lowest TFR of all the blocs , and it is not really improving .
However , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in that the bloc is skewed seemingly higher than it should be simply because it includes Generation X , which still ( the youngest of the generational division ) can and may have children .
They do not have a lot- maybe two -but the fact is they seem to be ‘ skewing ’ the fertility ranges upwards , as noted by my visits to their homes .
The younger Whites are not having children , and if a child is born , it seems like it will be an only child @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from many .
There are many couples living together without children and without a desire to have children , and there are some single moms , but largely there is nothing among Millennials .
LIkewise , when there are a few families , they again have only one ( maybe two ) children , and they live alone , isolated from their families and support networks .
As I have said before , demographics is not racist or supremacist , but simple mathematics .
Either one grows , maintains , or contracts one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago , the White nationalist singer Saga from Sweden put out a song called “ Ode to a dying people ” , about the disappearance of the White bloc from Europe .
I must say that for the purpose of this examination she is correct in so far as the idea that ‘ white people are disappearing , ’ but to accept such a conclusion at this point is not merely to support racialism , but would be a half truth , and thus a lie .
What I saw was not dying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being planted by means of suicidal behaviors that bring short-term pacification but the abolishment of oneself in the long term .
Thus by the choice of people to not reproduce , they chose to create a social and economic vacuum that they wanted to fill with other people to do work they refuse to do ( as it would mean to assume a lower standard of living than what they had become accustomed to ) , and since those people are having families while they are continuing not to have families , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mathematics , since population is a zero-sum matter .
One can see how this problem can be easily exploited for political gain .
However , the reality is that one can not blame any bloc other than oneself because it was not the Black bloc , Hispanic bloc , or any other bloc that made people stop having children .
Rather , it was the decisions of people who chose idleness and the pursuit of material gain instead of their own families , and instead lost the latter because of the passage of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one can not take the world with oneself on death .
The trends I saw suggest a continual decline of the White bloc- a completely reversible decline , but one that likely will continue because people would rather seem to complain and not have families than to do this .
In the words of one woman in the bloc that I spoke with , lamenting the fact that her son is in his mid-thirties with no children , no fiancee , no girlfriend , and no plans for a family , that ‘ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was her chief regret .
3 ) The Liberals are winning the political war This issue again is tied to demographics , but when talking to people in what one may call “ Trump country ” , people under 40 were generally inclined to the political left more so than what one would expect , and the inclinations increased as the age decreased .
The support of political ideas did not seem to change much between the Black and Hispanic blocs from their current and decidedly Democrat-favored views , but this trend seemed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) There is a major shift from the rural regions to the cities There is a small real estate boom happening right now because of COVID and people leaving the cities , but I do not expect this to last .
The Census seems to indicate this , as people are continuing to move to the cities since there are jobs that pay in these places , and the few jobs in rural areas are very low paying and do not offer much in the way of a long-term hope .
Indeed , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ goal upon growing up was to leave the country and never return , no matter what the bloc in question was .
One will have to wonder that , as all the above blocs are below replacement rate , that with a migration to the cities that seems to continue for the foreseeable future , if large rural areas will experience depopulation and possibly the dissolution of some small towns and their absorption into other ones with larger populations .
The area I was in was already poor , but what I saw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the poor becoming poorer .
This has been happening for a while around the country , but that the jobs available are decreasing in number , the salaries are stagnant or declining , the debt is growing , and the personal frustration with life is also increasing .
There was a consistent desire to either ‘ move up ’ or ‘ get out ’ of the various areas to urban regions where there was more hope for higher incomes and a better life in general .
6 ) The number of illegal residents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there are a lot of uncounted people from the Spanish-speaking countries here illegally , and this is very true .
My experience was from a single location , there were probably dozens of them under multiple names .
I could not get an accurate estimate because there were so many , and one also notes that when asking about such people ( not saying “ are you illegal ” , of course ) , one could almost see the fear in them , perhaps of an ICE raid .
When people talk about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ residents not officially counted in the Census , those numbers are likely not an exaggeration .
It is also reasonable to see why a sort of expedited ‘ path to citizenship ’ may be a good idea , since it is true there is a ‘ border problem ’ that was created and enabled over decades for political reasons , but this also has created a social problem that , as many of such people work in low-paying jobs that support the economy , should be resolved for the sake of the mercy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ outside of the law ’ and those who are “ native born/permanent citizens ” .
7 ) The success of the Hispanic bloc seems to be due to intercommunal assistance I alluded to this before , but something that I noticed in my interviews and conversations was the interconnected nature of the Hispanic bloc at large as opposed to the White bloc , and even the Black bloc .
I will note , there are signs that this may be changing , but for now , there are still generally visible community @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does not exist among the White bloc .
It also seems to me that with multiple generations living under one home , contributing income to each other , sharing in the division of labor , they are able to propel their children faster toward better things .
The White bloc , by contrast , seems to be very isolated between families with little inter-family support , and as such while some can ‘ get by ’ , they are forced to do more work with less division of labor and because of this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and may not be able to advance as efficiently in the longer term .
8 ) The “ rugged individualism ” mindset among whites is destroying them Some refer to it as the accursed mantra of the Boomers to “ pull yourself up by your bootstraps , ” but what I saw was people who in the process of trying to pull themselves up end up hanging themselves in the process .
It is known that the finances are skewed by generation , with the Boomers having the largest hold ( about 57 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( 16 % ) , and Millennials at 3 % .
I can not recall a single Millennial who owned a home save for two families- a single mother and her daughter , and a man with his pregnant wife -and both lived in poorer areas .
There was not a single member of the White bloc I talked to who was not suffering from some form of isolation from family and community , and I can not recall one without notable debts .
I can not say that people called themselves ‘ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the good and noble attempts that one can make at working by oneself for one ’ s own needs , there seemed to be a combination of isolation , poverty , and even a lack of place or support among the White bloc that stretched from the rich to the poor that was not found in the Black or Hispanic blocs in the same intensity .
I can best describe it as a sort of individualism that cuts oneself off from one ’ s neighbors , and while generally speaking better economically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ creating ‘ bubbles ’ in society and in which they lived .
This attitude also seems to be related to the growing poverty and debt that was among them .
As a trend for the future to watch , it may be a notable thing to return to the old ‘ immigrant model ’ and have multiple families either living close to or under the same roof , as the collective labor in a case like this allows more to be accomplished and arguably also appreciated than when one lives in stand-alone homes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they live in .
9 ) People who live in trailers or ‘ questionable ’ housing really are more dangerous People joke about the idea of “ trailer trash ” in the US , but I can tell you that it is real .
All of the very serious problems I had save for one incident came from trailers , from being shot at to attacked by dogs , to having what appeared to be people out of a movie talk to me ( in one notable case , I saw a man @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scraggly bunch of long hair and a cigarette ask for “ Momma ” ( his mother ) , who I spoke with , while the other man ( both were in their forties or fifties ) wearing a baseball cap with what seemed to be a NASCAR logo on it ask “ What ’ s he doing ma ?
” ) .
Trailer parks are better , but isolated trailers in the woods or off of the road are , from my experience , scary , dangerous things filled with people better left @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risk .
Without exaggerating , I may have witnessed where Jeff Foxworthy gets some of his comedy inspiration from .
As a comparison , it was of interest to note that two trailer parks I stopped at were half-Hispanic and half-White , and the other one all Hispanic , and in neither one did I ever experience any serious concerns .
10 ) There is an ‘ East German ’ level of treatment among many people to each other It was said that in East Germany , the internal security services , known @ @ @ @ @ @ @ report their neighbors , and this was met with mixed success .
What I can say is that working among the three blocs- White , Black , and Hispanic -it was the White bloc that gave me the most trouble with police .
Now as a Census worker , you are allowed to legally ‘ trespass ’ on anybody ’ s land because you are on official government business , and this is clearly explained , and you are easily identifiable as a Census worker .
While it is understandable that people would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ask people first before drawing guns , shooting at somebody , or just calling the police and saying there is a prowler looking to scope out houses .
The irony of this was when I was stopped by police , they laughed it off because they not only saw what I was doing , but that people called so many times the local county sheriff in one area noted that I was to be left alone and calls made about me ignored .
The last time I was stopped , I was at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a woman pulled up and began yelling at me .
She was White , and was angrily asking what I was doing and making threats to call the police , even after I explained .
My response to her , after becoming short on patience , was to tell her to call the police and I will wait , because they will just tell her to leave me alone .
She eventually went her own way .
The sense I took from this , as a general trend , was that among many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no sense of community like seen in the Black or Hispanic Blocs .
I do not speak about “ White solidarity ” or nonsense like that ( in the same that I would treat Black or Hispanic concepts of the like ) , but in that people in the latter two conducted themselves in a way that was , I must say , more human .
Certainly not all liked me and I had rude people , but with the White bloc , there was a pervasive sense of individualism combined with an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to listen outside of what one already assumed one was going to hear one say .
This was certainly not for all , but was noticeable among the bloc .
Seeing the effects of what appeared to be long-term methamphetamine use up close is a scary thing .
Combine that with poverty , misery , and a lack of meaning or community , and it is a dangerous combination .
12 ) The Hispanic bloc could suffer the same fate as the White bloc I have spoken overall in a very positive way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the future is not necessarily all ‘ roses ’ for them .
Rather , what I saw among them was a crossing between ‘ immigrant ’ and ‘ native ’ attitudes , with the division between those who recently arrived versus those who were born here or have been fully ‘ Americanized ’ .
It was clear by speaking with and looking at the younger members , that they at large had fully adopted the ideas , attitudes , and practices of their ‘ American ’ peers , and were on their way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ except with Hispanic instead of European faces .
This is not a ‘ racial ’ difference for either group , but a philosophical and attitude difference .
One may say this has happened with all immigrant groups , but what surprised me about the Hispanic bloc was that the process of Americanization seemed to be very fast and more complete than what it was for the previous groups of European immigrants , and that there is a possibility that they would become more disconnected faster and with a ‘ harder break ’ than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to be a trend to watch for , since it will have social , economic , and political consequences in the future .
If I had to summarize the trends for the future , all of them seem to be what I have noted at Shoebat.com , except that this time , I saw for myself , with my own eyes , what was taking place on the ground and participated in gathering the data to make such conclusions .
There are many things that one can not change in life .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to you- your decisions , your beliefs , your attitudes -and how you express them in your local community .
What I speak of here is not my wish , or my desire , but my observations .
Likewise , I should note that things can change , and very fast , but only if people want it .
That is the real problem , because one can not make a man do something he truly does not want to do .
Demographics truly is destiny because it is the decisions that you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the future , and ultimately extend beyong you to those around you .
The question is , it seems , who do you live for- God and family and something greater , or for yourself in the moment ?
Donate now to help support the work of this site .
When you donate , you are not donating to just any commentary group , but one that is endlessly observing the news , reading between the lines and separating hysteria and perception from reality .
In shoebat.com , we are working every day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data and analysis to tell you what lies for the future .
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Every ten years, since 1790, the US government takes what is called the Census. The length and extent of the questions have changed repeatedly over the years, but the principle is all the same throughout, which is to try and get an estimate of how many people live in the country, who they are, and from this, project based on local, state, and national estimates the makeup of the country and where it is heading.
The Census is one of those things that, while not inherently able to be executed with perfect accuracy, does attempt to give a realistic perspective on society about as best as one is able to get, since its answers are pulled from people who live in your local communities and compiled with other data. It is obvious why the government would have an interest in this for many reasons (and not necessarily for bad ones).
The American political ‘right wing’ often likes to use the phrase “Demography is destiny”, and I must agree, this is true in so far as societies are made up of people, and who those people are and what they value determines how society changes. This is the same reason why one sees laws enshrining anti-Christian practices (such as homosexuality) while also tendencies towards the long-term removal of firearms in spite of talk about the Second Amendment. This is not because “liberals have taken over”- as though they were aliens from another planet and not fully human, or some strange creature from the deep -but they are people, and if they grow in number and influence, the laws will change to reflect their beliefs because, unlike as how many would have it, man is not made for laws, but laws are made by men for men to help them understand their place in the world and how to relate to it in so far as the corpus of society is concerned, and these laws are not necessarily moral, but are intended to (when used properly) to meet the needs of the people they address. This is why a law against alcohol, while popular at one time in the US so much as to make a constitutional amendment banning the sale of the substance, was eventually repealed by force and why such laws are easily enforced in Islamic nations, because for better or worse, there are different groups of people who have different needs.
Over a year ago, I applied to be a US Census taker as a job in order to get a feel for my local community and those areas surrounding me. I did this because demographics is a part of my research here at Shoebat.com, and in contributing to the greater understanding of society at a national level with official data, I would also be able to get a direct, personal sense of what is happening around me and be able to relay it to you.
By law, there is certain information I cannot reveal. As an added measure, I also will take my own precautions and note that I will not say the communities or states in which I worked. However, I can say that I spanned both urban and rural communities throughout a region of the southeastern US, and my experiences are based upon this.
They were not always pretty experiences either. From having doors slammed shut in my face, to verbal threats, to being attacked by dogs, to having drug dealers sic their pitbulls at me, to having guns pulled on me twice, to being shot at once by a crazed man who looked like Timothy McVeigh (not an exaggeration either), I experienced some of the best and worst of American society.
These are my findings. I will try to keep them brief. Also, you will find that I do not cite any sources for this. Why do I not do this? Because my research as a part of the Census Bureau was itself the primary source for data obtained by way of speaking with the people first-hand. After all, what is a better measure of what people think than by directly asking them?
Some of these observations may sound controversial. They are not intended to, and nothing is meant or implied by them to promote division. Rather, I am looking to give a sound analysis to what I saw in the most charitable way possible, discussing the good, bad, and ugly, and what it means.
Here is a list of twelve observations as to what I found.
1) The Hispanic Demographic is growing by a lot and by not as much as you would think.
To give an impression of what I was working with, there were three main racial groups- White, Black, and “Hispanic”, the latter of which is not classified as a “race”, but an “ethnicity” that spans multiple races (there were other races, but I would say they were such a minority presence they were not statistically relevant for our discussion). Thus one could be “White and Hispanic” versus “White, Non-hispanic”, and the same for Black or Asian. When I speak of “Hispanic”, for my purposes, I am referring to people primarily from Mexico and Guatemala, as these were the main demographics in my region.
The Hispanic families were interesting because, for all the talk about women who just “drop anchor babies” and have “multiple fathers”, this was not at all my experience. There were some families with three and four children, but most had two, and there was either a mom and a dad at home, or a mom living with her family. The support systems were clear and visible, even though many of them lived in visible poverty and worked at low-end jobs.
What I found looking at the Hispanic bloc that took me a minute to fully process was that the Hispanics were not special at all. In fact, they were so ‘normal’ in their appearance and life and the answers they gave that they were essentially what many ‘working class Whites’ seems to have reported (based on my experience of reading past Census reports) even just as recently as a few decades ago. The fact that they had two and sometimes three children was not at all special- it was what the White and Black blocs used to do until the past few decades.
The current Census statistics show that the Hispanic bloc has a fertility rate of about 2 to 2.1 children per woman, or just at or slightly below replacement rate. This number would seem to make sense with what I saw. This is why I say the demographic seems to be growing by ‘a lot’ and ‘not much’ at the same time, since they are not spectacular in their having children or family life, but rather, that the world has become so abnormal around the rest of society, that this bloc still has many of the characteristics of what ‘normal life’ used to look like and still does for many parts of the world and certainly the larger historical picture, but that it has been forgotten by so many amid the legitimization of the ridiculous as normal.
As I noted, many were clearly poor, but there were some in up-and-coming jobs, and even lived in ‘nice’ homes in ‘nice’ areas. Likewise, among the younger people in the bloc, there seems to be a not large but clearly visible presence of interracial relationships between Hispanics and Whites, with a slight favor in relationships between White men and Hispanic Women than the reverse.
2) White fertility rates are in serious decline and the bloc is aging fast
This is something that has been written about for a while, and as I noted before, nothing here is made in a racialized context, but rather an examination of reality.
The fact is that the White bloc has the lowest TFR of all the blocs, and it is not really improving. However, what I saw was even more concerning, in that the bloc is skewed seemingly higher than it should be simply because it includes Generation X, which still (the youngest of the generational division) can and may have children. They do not have a lot- maybe two -but the fact is they seem to be ‘skewing’ the fertility ranges upwards, as noted by my visits to their homes.
The younger Whites are not having children, and if a child is born, it seems like it will be an only child. This was the impression I received from many. There are many couples living together without children and without a desire to have children, and there are some single moms, but largely there is nothing among Millennials. LIkewise, when there are a few families, they again have only one (maybe two) children, and they live alone, isolated from their families and support networks.
As I have said before, demographics is not racist or supremacist, but simple mathematics. Either one grows, maintains, or contracts one’s numbers.
Over a decade ago, the White nationalist singer Saga from Sweden put out a song called “Ode to a dying people”, about the disappearance of the White bloc from Europe. I must say that for the purpose of this examination she is correct in so far as the idea that ‘white people are disappearing,’ but to accept such a conclusion at this point is not merely to support racialism, but would be a half truth, and thus a lie. What I saw was not dying, but rather the seeds of death being planted by means of suicidal behaviors that bring short-term pacification but the abolishment of oneself in the long term. Thus by the choice of people to not reproduce, they chose to create a social and economic vacuum that they wanted to fill with other people to do work they refuse to do (as it would mean to assume a lower standard of living than what they had become accustomed to), and since those people are having families while they are continuing not to have families, they are naturally being replaced by virtue of mathematics, since population is a zero-sum matter.
One can see how this problem can be easily exploited for political gain. However, the reality is that one cannot blame any bloc other than oneself because it was not the Black bloc, Hispanic bloc, or any other bloc that made people stop having children. Rather, it was the decisions of people who chose idleness and the pursuit of material gain instead of their own families, and instead lost the latter because of the passage of time and will lose the former because one cannot take the world with oneself on death.
The trends I saw suggest a continual decline of the White bloc- a completely reversible decline, but one that likely will continue because people would rather seem to complain and not have families than to do this. In the words of one woman in the bloc that I spoke with, lamenting the fact that her son is in his mid-thirties with no children, no fiancee, no girlfriend, and no plans for a family, that ‘I wish I had more children’ was her chief regret.
3) The Liberals are winning the political war
This issue again is tied to demographics, but when talking to people in what one may call “Trump country”, people under 40 were generally inclined to the political left more so than what one would expect, and the inclinations increased as the age decreased. The support of political ideas did not seem to change much between the Black and Hispanic blocs from their current and decidedly Democrat-favored views, but this trend seemed more prevalent among the whites.
4) There is a major shift from the rural regions to the cities
There is a small real estate boom happening right now because of COVID and people leaving the cities, but I do not expect this to last. The Census seems to indicate this, as people are continuing to move to the cities since there are jobs that pay in these places, and the few jobs in rural areas are very low paying and do not offer much in the way of a long-term hope. Indeed, it seemed that for many, the goal upon growing up was to leave the country and never return, no matter what the bloc in question was.
One will have to wonder that, as all the above blocs are below replacement rate, that with a migration to the cities that seems to continue for the foreseeable future, if large rural areas will experience depopulation and possibly the dissolution of some small towns and their absorption into other ones with larger populations.
5) Poverty is becoming a lot worse
The area I was in was already poor, but what I saw was a continued and growing trend of the poor becoming poorer. This has been happening for a while around the country, but that the jobs available are decreasing in number, the salaries are stagnant or declining, the debt is growing, and the personal frustration with life is also increasing. There was a consistent desire to either ‘move up’ or ‘get out’ of the various areas to urban regions where there was more hope for higher incomes and a better life in general.
6) The number of illegal residents is grossly underestimated
People talk about how there are a lot of uncounted people from the Spanish-speaking countries here illegally, and this is very true. My experience was from a single location, there were probably dozens of them under multiple names. I could not get an accurate estimate because there were so many, and one also notes that when asking about such people (not saying “are you illegal”, of course), one could almost see the fear in them, perhaps of an ICE raid.
When people talk about how there could be 30 million illegal residents not officially counted in the Census, those numbers are likely not an exaggeration. It is also reasonable to see why a sort of expedited ‘path to citizenship’ may be a good idea, since it is true there is a ‘border problem’ that was created and enabled over decades for political reasons, but this also has created a social problem that, as many of such people work in low-paying jobs that support the economy, should be resolved for the sake of the mercy and justice of both the people here ‘outside of the law’ and those who are “native born/permanent citizens”.
7) The success of the Hispanic bloc seems to be due to intercommunal assistance
I alluded to this before, but something that I noticed in my interviews and conversations was the interconnected nature of the Hispanic bloc at large as opposed to the White bloc, and even the Black bloc. I will note, there are signs that this may be changing, but for now, there are still generally visible community support networks among the Hispanic bloc that does not exist among the White bloc. It also seems to me that with multiple generations living under one home, contributing income to each other, sharing in the division of labor, they are able to propel their children faster toward better things. The White bloc, by contrast, seems to be very isolated between families with little inter-family support, and as such while some can ‘get by’, they are forced to do more work with less division of labor and because of this lack the networks of support I saw and may not be able to advance as efficiently in the longer term.
8) The “rugged individualism” mindset among whites is destroying them
Some refer to it as the accursed mantra of the Boomers to “pull yourself up by your bootstraps,” but what I saw was people who in the process of trying to pull themselves up end up hanging themselves in the process.
It is known that the finances are skewed by generation, with the Boomers having the largest hold (about 57%), Generation X the second (16%), and Millennials at 3%. I cannot recall a single Millennial who owned a home save for two families- a single mother and her daughter, and a man with his pregnant wife -and both lived in poorer areas. There was not a single member of the White bloc I talked to who was not suffering from some form of isolation from family and community, and I cannot recall one without notable debts.
I cannot say that people called themselves ‘rugged individualists’, but for all of the good and noble attempts that one can make at working by oneself for one’s own needs, there seemed to be a combination of isolation, poverty, and even a lack of place or support among the White bloc that stretched from the rich to the poor that was not found in the Black or Hispanic blocs in the same intensity. I can best describe it as a sort of individualism that cuts oneself off from one’s neighbors, and while generally speaking better economically, were isolated to the point of creating ‘bubbles’ in society and in which they lived. This attitude also seems to be related to the growing poverty and debt that was among them.
As a trend for the future to watch, it may be a notable thing to return to the old ‘immigrant model’ and have multiple families either living close to or under the same roof, as the collective labor in a case like this allows more to be accomplished and arguably also appreciated than when one lives in stand-alone homes as isolated from communities are the buildings they live in.
9) People who live in trailers or ‘questionable’ housing really are more dangerous
People joke about the idea of “trailer trash” in the US, but I can tell you that it is real. All of the very serious problems I had save for one incident came from trailers, from being shot at to attacked by dogs, to having what appeared to be people out of a movie talk to me (in one notable case, I saw a man with a balding head crowned with a scraggly bunch of long hair and a cigarette ask for “Momma” (his mother), who I spoke with, while the other man (both were in their forties or fifties) wearing a baseball cap with what seemed to be a NASCAR logo on it ask “What’s he doing ma?”). Trailer parks are better, but isolated trailers in the woods or off of the road are, from my experience, scary, dangerous things filled with people better left alone and that pose a real safety risk.
Without exaggerating, I may have witnessed where Jeff Foxworthy gets some of his comedy inspiration from.
As a comparison, it was of interest to note that two trailer parks I stopped at were half-Hispanic and half-White, and the other one all Hispanic, and in neither one did I ever experience any serious concerns.
10) There is an ‘East German’ level of treatment among many people to each other
It was said that in East Germany, the internal security services, known as the Stasi, encouraged people to report their neighbors, and this was met with mixed success. What I can say is that working among the three blocs- White, Black, and Hispanic -it was the White bloc that gave me the most trouble with police.
Now as a Census worker, you are allowed to legally ‘trespass’ on anybody’s land because you are on official government business, and this is clearly explained, and you are easily identifiable as a Census worker. While it is understandable that people would be suspicious, one would think to ask people first before drawing guns, shooting at somebody, or just calling the police and saying there is a prowler looking to scope out houses.
The irony of this was when I was stopped by police, they laughed it off because they not only saw what I was doing, but that people called so many times the local county sheriff in one area noted that I was to be left alone and calls made about me ignored.
The last time I was stopped, I was at a house taking care of business when a woman pulled up and began yelling at me. She was White, and was angrily asking what I was doing and making threats to call the police, even after I explained. My response to her, after becoming short on patience, was to tell her to call the police and I will wait, because they will just tell her to leave me alone. She eventually went her own way.
The sense I took from this, as a general trend, was that among many of the White bloc, there was no sense of community like seen in the Black or Hispanic Blocs. I do not speak about “White solidarity” or nonsense like that (in the same that I would treat Black or Hispanic concepts of the like), but in that people in the latter two conducted themselves in a way that was, I must say, more human. Certainly not all liked me and I had rude people, but with the White bloc, there was a pervasive sense of individualism combined with an unhealthy distrust of people and an unwillingness to listen outside of what one already assumed one was going to hear one say. This was certainly not for all, but was noticeable among the bloc.
11) Meth is scary
Seeing the effects of what appeared to be long-term methamphetamine use up close is a scary thing. Combine that with poverty, misery, and a lack of meaning or community, and it is a dangerous combination.
12) The Hispanic bloc could suffer the same fate as the White bloc
I have spoken overall in a very positive way about the Hispanic bloc. However, the future is not necessarily all ‘roses’ for them. Rather, what I saw among them was a crossing between ‘immigrant’ and ‘native’ attitudes, with the division between those who recently arrived versus those who were born here or have been fully ‘Americanized’.
It was clear by speaking with and looking at the younger members, that they at large had fully adopted the ideas, attitudes, and practices of their ‘American’ peers, and were on their way to becoming the same versions of them except with Hispanic instead of European faces. This is not a ‘racial’ difference for either group, but a philosophical and attitude difference. One may say this has happened with all immigrant groups, but what surprised me about the Hispanic bloc was that the process of Americanization seemed to be very fast and more complete than what it was for the previous groups of European immigrants, and that there is a possibility that they would become more disconnected faster and with a ‘harder break’ than those who came before. This is going to be a trend to watch for, since it will have social, economic, and political consequences in the future.
…
If I had to summarize the trends for the future, all of them seem to be what I have noted at Shoebat.com, except that this time, I saw for myself, with my own eyes, what was taking place on the ground and participated in gathering the data to make such conclusions.
There are many things that one cannot change in life. However, the future is always tied to you- your decisions, your beliefs, your attitudes -and how you express them in your local community. What I speak of here is not my wish, or my desire, but my observations. Likewise, I should note that things can change, and very fast, but only if people want it. That is the real problem, because one cannot make a man do something he truly does not want to do.
Demographics truly is destiny because it is the decisions that you choose now as a person that affect the future, and ultimately extend beyong you to those around you. The question is, it seems, who do you live for- God and family and something greater, or for yourself in the moment?
Choose wisely.
.
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shoebat--2020-10-08--Syria, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, And The Pursuit Of Empire

In this video I talk about the horrors of the battle over Hama in Syria which took place in the @ @ @ @ @ reflects the turbulence and chaos taking place in the Near East and Caucasus today :

By Theodore Shoebat
In this video I talk about the horrors of the battle over Hama in Syria which took place in the 1980s, an how it reflects the turbulence and chaos taking place in the Near East and Caucasus today:
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shoebat--2020-10-09--Putin Declares Support For The Democrat Party, Says There Are Many Common Values Between The Democra

Putin Declares Support For The Democrat Party, Says There Are Many Common Values Between The Democrats And Communism

Many people have spoken about a relationship between Trump and Putin .
Some have denied this .
However , a recent statement from Putin should clarify that , at the very least , it seems he wants Trump to win , as he said that Communism and the Democrat Party make good allied .
Russian President Vladimir Putin has attempted to mark a positive resemblance between Democratic presidential candidate , former Vice President Joe Biden , and Soviet communists in a wide-ranging interview with the Rossiya TV channel , released Wednesday as the 2020 vice presidential candidates prepared to debate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be open to working with whoever sits in the Oval Office in 2021 , despite U.S. intelligence reports indicating that Russia is trying to undermine Biden in the same way it did Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 .
But Putin linked Biden to communist ideology during the interview .
While Putin—a former party member , KGB colonel and intelligence operative—made the comparison in positive terms , his comment lines up with GOP talking points about the Biden-Kamala Harris ticket .
Trump and his allies have tried to frame their opponents proposing a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ progressive wing of the Democratic Party .
“ The Democratic Party is traditionally closer to the so-called liberal values , closer to social democratic ideas , ” Putin said .
“ And it was from the social democratic environment that the Communist Party evolved.
” “ After all , I was a member of the Soviet Communist Party for nearly 20 years ” Putin added .
“ I was a rank-and-file member , but it can be said that I believed in the party ’ s ideas .
I still like many of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
What is bad about them ?
In fact , they are akin to Christian values.
” “ Yes , they are difficult to implement , but they are very attractive , nevertheless .
In other words , this can be seen as an ideological basis for developing contacts with the Democratic representative.
” Putin also reminisced on the Soviet Union ’ s rhetorical support for African-American civil rights struggle .
American racial inequality will play a central role in the coming election .
Trump has been widely criticized for dismissing the concerns @ @ @ @ @ @ @ white supremacist groups .
Trump and his allies have tried to characterize the Black Lives Matter movement , for example , as an extremist and even terrorist organization .
Putin said Black Americans “ constitute a stable electorate ” in favor of the Democrats .
“ The Soviet Union also supported the African Americans ’ movement for their legitimate rights , ” he said .
“ Back in the 1930s , Communist International leaders wrote that both black and white workers had a common enemy–imperialism and capitalism .
They also wrote that these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the future revolutionary battle.
” “ So , this is something that can be seen , to a degree , as common values , if not a unifying agent for us , ” Putin said .
“ People of my generation remember a time when huge portraits of Angela Davis , a member of the U.S. Communist Party and an ardent fighter for the rights of African Americans , were on view around the Soviet Union.
” FBI Director Christopher Wray confirmed in September that Russia is spreading disinformation to “ denigrate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American intelligence agencies and lawmakers—including a Republican-led Senate committee—have confirmed extensive contact between Trump ’ s 2016 campaign and Moscow , including multiple individuals linked to Russian intelligence .
Trump and Putin have repeatedly dismissed such reports—the former branding them “ fake news ” —as an effort to undermine Trump ’ s presidency and damage ties between Washington , D.C. and Moscow .
Putin also pointed out to Rossiya a specific arena where he would be ready to work with a Biden administration , despite the former vice president vowing to address Russian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as “ sharp anti-Russia rhetoric.
” “ Candidate Biden has said openly that he was ready to extend the New START or to sign a new strategic offensive reductions treaty , ” Putin said , referring to the landmark nuclear arms control accord that is due to lapse next year .
“ This is already a very significant element of our potential future cooperation.
” The Trump administration has thus far refused offers to extend the deal , saying it wants China included in any new nuclear arms deals .
“ I would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more than once before .
We will work with any future president of the United States , the one whom the American people give their vote of confidence , ” Putin said .
( source )

Many people have spoken about a relationship between Trump and Putin. Some have denied this. However, a recent statement from Putin should clarify that, at the very least, it seems he wants Trump to win, as he said that Communism and the Democrat Party make good allied.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has attempted to mark a positive resemblance between Democratic presidential candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden, and Soviet communists in a wide-ranging interview with the Rossiya TV channel, released Wednesday as the 2020 vice presidential candidates prepared to debate.
The president said the Kremlin would be open to working with whoever sits in the Oval Office in 2021, despite U.S. intelligence reports indicating that Russia is trying to undermine Biden in the same way it did Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016.
But Putin linked Biden to communist ideology during the interview. While Putin—a former party member, KGB colonel and intelligence operative—made the comparison in positive terms, his comment lines up with GOP talking points about the Biden-Kamala Harris ticket. Trump and his allies have tried to frame their opponents proposing a far-left, extremist platform dictated by the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
“The Democratic Party is traditionally closer to the so-called liberal values, closer to social democratic ideas,” Putin said. “And it was from the social democratic environment that the Communist Party evolved.”
“After all, I was a member of the Soviet Communist Party for nearly 20 years” Putin added. “I was a rank-and-file member, but it can be said that I believed in the party’s ideas. I still like many of these left-wing values. Equality and fraternity. What is bad about them? In fact, they are akin to Christian values.”
“Yes, they are difficult to implement, but they are very attractive, nevertheless. In other words, this can be seen as an ideological basis for developing contacts with the Democratic representative.”
Putin also reminisced on the Soviet Union’s rhetorical support for African-American civil rights struggle. American racial inequality will play a central role in the coming election. Trump has been widely criticized for dismissing the concerns of Black voters and tacitly endorsing violent white supremacist groups.
Trump and his allies have tried to characterize the Black Lives Matter movement, for example, as an extremist and even terrorist organization.
Putin said Black Americans “constitute a stable electorate” in favor of the Democrats. “The Soviet Union also supported the African Americans’ movement for their legitimate rights,” he said.
“Back in the 1930s, Communist International leaders wrote that both black and white workers had a common enemy–imperialism and capitalism. They also wrote that these people could become the most effective group in the future revolutionary battle.”
“So, this is something that can be seen, to a degree, as common values, if not a unifying agent for us,” Putin said. “People of my generation remember a time when huge portraits of Angela Davis, a member of the U.S. Communist Party and an ardent fighter for the rights of African Americans, were on view around the Soviet Union.”
FBI Director Christopher Wray confirmed in September that Russia is spreading disinformation to “denigrate” Biden ahead of the election. American intelligence agencies and lawmakers—including a Republican-led Senate committee—have confirmed extensive contact between Trump’s 2016 campaign and Moscow, including multiple individuals linked to Russian intelligence.
Trump and Putin have repeatedly dismissed such reports—the former branding them “fake news”—as an effort to undermine Trump’s presidency and damage ties between Washington, D.C. and Moscow.
Putin also pointed out to Rossiya a specific arena where he would be ready to work with a Biden administration, despite the former vice president vowing to address Russian meddling and aggressive foreign policy—promises Putin described as “sharp anti-Russia rhetoric.”
“Candidate Biden has said openly that he was ready to extend the New START or to sign a new strategic offensive reductions treaty,” Putin said, referring to the landmark nuclear arms control accord that is due to lapse next year. “This is already a very significant element of our potential future cooperation.” The Trump administration has thus far refused offers to extend the deal, saying it wants China included in any new nuclear arms deals.
“I would like to repeat what I have said more than once before. We will work with any future president of the United States, the one whom the American people give their vote of confidence,” Putin said. (source)


shoebat--2020-10-09--Was A Catholic Priest Just Caught In A Bizarre, Blasphemous Ritual In Church?

There are many good priests , but there are also bad ones , and they can cause a lot of problems .
Such happened recently when a priest in Louisiana was arrested after he was caught in a bizarre ritual involving prostitutes and blasphemy on the altar in a church .
The lights inside Saints Peter and Paul Roman Catholic Church in Pearl River were on later than usual on Sept. 30 , so a passerby stopped to take a closer look .
Peering inside , the onlooker saw the small parish ’ s pastor half-naked having sex with two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ court documents .
The women were dressed in corsets and high-heeled boots .
There were sex toys and stage lighting .
And a mobile phone was mounted on a tripod , recording it all .
The eyewitness took a video and called the Pearl River police , who arrived at the church and viewed that recording .
Officers then arrested the Rev .
Travis Clark , pastor of Saints Peter and Paul since 2019 , on obscenity charges .
The Archdiocese of New Orleans announced the priest ’ s arrest Oct. 1 but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was arrested .
Nor would the police .
New details , however , have emerged in court filings that paint a lurid picture of a priest recording himself engaged in sexual role play while desecrating a sacred place within the church .
Public records additionally show that one of the women , Mindy Dixon , 41 , is an adult film actor who also works for hire as a dominatrix .
On a social media account associated with Dixon , a Sept. 29 post says she was on her way to the New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and defile a house of God.
” Dixon and Melissa Cheng , 23 , were booked on the same count as Clark , 37 .
Police said the charge stems from from “ obscene acts [ that ] occurred on the altar , which is clearly visible from the street.
” The church is vague on the specific acts that would constitute a desecration , but the Code of Canon Law says a violation of a sacred place occurs “ by gravely injurious actions done in them ” that are “ contrary to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ description appears to apply to the alleged tryst as outlined by police in documents filed in Louisiana ’ s 22nd Judicial District Court in Covington .
On Sept. 30 just before 11:00 p.m. , an unidentified person was walking by the church on St. Mary Drive and looked inside through windows and glass doors because the lights were still on .
Police allege that the person “ observed and had video of Ms. Cheng and Ms. Dixon ” using plastic sex toys while engaging in intercourse on the altar with Clark , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The person called the police to the church .
Officers arrived to see two women clad in corsets and high-heeled boots by the altar , with “ lights set up around them as if they were filming some type of event , ” the documents said .
( source ) It is a known trend throughout history that people have gone into the Catholic priesthood who were evil for the purposes of doing evil , or that some men who may have entered with good intentions ended up doing very bad things @ @ @ @ @ @ @ off as simple degeneracy- and it may be this .
However , this trend of infiltrating ‘ from within ’ has been noted by shoebat.com , such as with a network of nuns uncovered involved in the occult .
After all , while there may be people who for their own personal “ kicks ” would do such a thing on the altar , it seems more aligned to that of a ritual of sorts , and this is more pronounced by the ‘ film-like ’ quality of the event .
Given the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the occult operating among the clergy in Rome , it gives one to wonder if perhaps what happened here was something of deeper significance than what it appears .
We know for a fact that priests have been involved in bizarre demonic activity in the current times ( see examples we have noted here and here ) .
Why would it be a surprise if this was another case ?
With the world moving away from God and towards evil , with religion and the practice of religion in serious decline , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does not boden well for the world , for when trends like this take place , they always point to the same end , which is destruction that often manifests through war .
Donate now to help support the work of this site .
When you donate , you are not donating to just any commentary group , but one that is endlessly observing the news , reading between the lines and separating hysteria and perception from reality .
In shoebat.com , we are working every day , tirelessly investigating global trends and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what lies for the future .
CLICK HERE TO FOLLOW OUR NEW SHOEBAT FACEBOOK PAGE

There are many good priests, but there are also bad ones, and they can cause a lot of problems. Such happened recently when a priest in Louisiana was arrested after he was caught in a bizarre ritual involving prostitutes and blasphemy on the altar in a church.
The lights inside Saints Peter and Paul Roman Catholic Church in Pearl River were on later than usual on Sept. 30, so a passerby stopped to take a closer look. Peering inside, the onlooker saw the small parish’s pastor half-naked having sex with two women on the altar, according to court documents. The women were dressed in corsets and high-heeled boots. There were sex toys and stage lighting. And a mobile phone was mounted on a tripod, recording it all. The eyewitness took a video and called the Pearl River police, who arrived at the church and viewed that recording. Officers then arrested the Rev. Travis Clark, pastor of Saints Peter and Paul since 2019, on obscenity charges. The Archdiocese of New Orleans announced the priest’s arrest Oct. 1 but would not give specifics about why he was arrested. Nor would the police. New details, however, have emerged in court filings that paint a lurid picture of a priest recording himself engaged in sexual role play while desecrating a sacred place within the church. Public records additionally show that one of the women, Mindy Dixon, 41, is an adult film actor who also works for hire as a dominatrix. On a social media account associated with Dixon, a Sept. 29 post says she was on her way to the New Orleans area to meet another dominatrix “and defile a house of God.” Dixon and Melissa Cheng, 23, were booked on the same count as Clark, 37. Police said the charge stems from from “obscene acts [that] occurred on the altar, which is clearly visible from the street.” … The church is vague on the specific acts that would constitute a desecration, but the Code of Canon Law says a violation of a sacred place occurs “by gravely injurious actions done in them” that are “contrary to the holiness of the place.” That description appears to apply to the alleged tryst as outlined by police in documents filed in Louisiana’s 22nd Judicial District Court in Covington. On Sept. 30 just before 11:00 p.m., an unidentified person was walking by the church on St. Mary Drive and looked inside through windows and glass doors because the lights were still on. Police allege that the person “observed and had video of Ms. Cheng and Ms. Dixon” using plastic sex toys while engaging in intercourse on the altar with Clark, who was still partially wearing his priestly attire. The person called the police to the church. Officers arrived to see two women clad in corsets and high-heeled boots by the altar, with “lights set up around them as if they were filming some type of event,” the documents said. (source)
It is a known trend throughout history that people have gone into the Catholic priesthood who were evil for the purposes of doing evil, or that some men who may have entered with good intentions ended up doing very bad things.
It is easy to write this off as simple degeneracy- and it may be this. However, this trend of infiltrating ‘from within’ has been noted by shoebat.com, such as with a network of nuns uncovered involved in the occult.
After all, while there may be people who for their own personal “kicks” would do such a thing on the altar, it seems more aligned to that of a ritual of sorts, and this is more pronounced by the ‘film-like’ quality of the event. Given the problems with homosexuality and open links to the occult operating among the clergy in Rome, it gives one to wonder if perhaps what happened here was something of deeper significance than what it appears.
We know for a fact that priests have been involved in bizarre demonic activity in the current times (see examples we have noted here and here). Why would it be a surprise if this was another case?
With the world moving away from God and towards evil, with religion and the practice of religion in serious decline, and the problems in the Church, it does not boden well for the world, for when trends like this take place, they always point to the same end, which is destruction that often manifests through war.
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shoebat--2020-10-09--The Medicine That Trump Took To Cure Him Of Covid And That He Praised As A Gift From God Was Develop

The Medicine That Trump Took To Cure Him Of Covid And That He Praised As A Gift From God Was Developed With The Cells Of Aborted Fetuses

The medicine that Trump took that cured him of his coronavirus and that Trump praised as a gift from God , was developed using the cells of aborted fetuses .
As we read in a report from CBS News : The antibody cocktail that President Trump received for his COVID-19 infection and touted on Wednesday evening as a “ cure ” for the deadly virus was developed using cells derived from aborted fetal tissue , a practice the White House and anti-abortion rights groups oppose .
Last week , Mr. Trump received Regeneron Pharmaceuticals ’ cocktail of monoclonal antibodies , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still undergoing testing and is not FDA approved .
In a nearly five-minute video posted to Twitter on Wednesday , the president lauded its effects , calling it “ the key.
” “ I think this was a blessing from God that I caught [ the virus ] , I think it was a blessing in disguise , ” Mr. Trump said in the video .
“ I caught it , I heard about this drug , I said , ‘ Let me take it ’ … and it was incredible the way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which the antibody cocktail was developed is at odds with the Trump administration ’ s position on stem cell research .
The drug ’ s potency was tested in a lab using HEK 293T cells , a cell line originally derived from the kidney tissue of a fetus aborted in the Netherlands in the 1970s , said a spokesperson for Regeneron in an email to CBS News on Thursday .
The cells “ were used in testing the antibody candidates ’ ability to neutralize the virus ” and helped researchers “ determine the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now make up the REGN-COV2 cocktail , ” the spokesperson said .

The medicine that Trump took that cured him of his coronavirus and that Trump praised as a gift from God, was developed using the cells of aborted fetuses. As we read in a report from CBS News:
The antibody cocktail that President Trump received for his COVID-19 infection and touted on Wednesday evening as a “cure” for the deadly virus was developed using cells derived from aborted fetal tissue, a practice the White House and anti-abortion rights groups oppose.
Last week, Mr. Trump received Regeneron Pharmaceuticals’ cocktail of monoclonal antibodies, an experimental therapeutic for coronavirus that is still undergoing testing and is not FDA approved. In a nearly five-minute video posted to Twitter on Wednesday, the president lauded its effects, calling it “the key.”
“I think this was a blessing from God that I caught [the virus], I think it was a blessing in disguise,” Mr. Trump said in the video. “I caught it, I heard about this drug, I said, ‘Let me take it’ … and it was incredible the way it worked.”
But the way in which the antibody cocktail was developed is at odds with the Trump administration’s position on stem cell research. The drug’s potency was tested in a lab using HEK 293T cells, a cell line originally derived from the kidney tissue of a fetus aborted in the Netherlands in the 1970s, said a spokesperson for Regeneron in an email to CBS News on Thursday. The cells “were used in testing the antibody candidates’ ability to neutralize the virus” and helped researchers “determine the ‘best’ two antibodies, which now make up the REGN-COV2 cocktail,” the spokesperson said.


shoebat--2020-10-09--Poll: Most Americans Say They Are Better Off Under Trump Than Obama

I have repeatedly noted that most of the election is already decided .
It only matters really in eight states what the outcomes are , and Trump is largely playing to them .
According to a new Gallup Poll reported on by way of Zero Hedge , a majority of Americans say they are better off under Trump than Obama .
…a majority of 56 % of Americans feel that they are better off now under Donald Trump ’ s presidency than they were four years ago under Barack Obama and Joe Biden .
The survey recorded the highest number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feel in a better position 4 years into an incumbent ’ s presidency .
Given that in all but one of the examples above , where the number is much lower than 56 % , the incumbent was re-elected , the findings bode very well for Trump .
While the majority is a good sign for Trump , the figure was even higher back in February , before the coronavirus pandemic .
Back then , 61 % expressed more satisfaction than they had four years previously .
Given the current circumstances , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans think they are better off now , and betrays how effective Trump ’ s presidency has been thus far .
The only time an incumbent president has failed to be re-elected when seeking a second term since this question was first asked was H.W .
Bush in 1992 .
The number of Americans more satisfied than four years previously in that instance was way down at 38 % , nearly 20 % less than has been recorded now .
The idea for the survey originates in a question Ronald Reagan asked Americans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ Are you better off today than you were four years ago ?
’ ( source ) Now there is a lot that could happen in this election .
That said , the favor is still with Trump no matter what the polls are or even if he loses the popular vote by more than before ( which is something that may happen ) , since it is the college that decides on his presidency .
However , the fact that Trump holds simple majority of people who are satisfied with him may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , to give him the edge that he needs for victory .
Donate now to help support the work of this site .
When you donate , you are not donating to just any commentary group , but one that is endlessly observing the news , reading between the lines and separating hysteria and perception from reality .
In shoebat.com , we are working every day , tirelessly investigating global trends and providing data and analysis to tell you what lies for the future .
CLICK HERE TO FOLLOW OUR NEW SHOEBAT FACEBOOK @

I have repeatedly noted that most of the election is already decided. It only matters really in eight states what the outcomes are, and Trump is largely playing to them.
According to a new Gallup Poll reported on by way of Zero Hedge, a majority of Americans say they are better off under Trump than Obama.
…a majority of 56% of Americans feel that they are better off now under Donald Trump’s presidency than they were four years ago under Barack Obama and Joe Biden. The survey recorded the highest number of Americans in history saying that they feel in a better position 4 years into an incumbent’s presidency. Given that in all but one of the examples above, where the number is much lower than 56%, the incumbent was re-elected, the findings bode very well for Trump. While the majority is a good sign for Trump, the figure was even higher back in February, before the coronavirus pandemic. Back then, 61% expressed more satisfaction than they had four years previously. Given the current circumstances, it is rather startling to find that more Americans think they are better off now, and betrays how effective Trump’s presidency has been thus far. The only time an incumbent president has failed to be re-elected when seeking a second term since this question was first asked was H.W. Bush in 1992. The number of Americans more satisfied than four years previously in that instance was way down at 38%, nearly 20% less than has been recorded now. The idea for the survey originates in a question Ronald Reagan asked Americans during his presidential campaign in 1980, ‘Are you better off today than you were four years ago?’(source)
Now there is a lot that could happen in this election. That said, the favor is still with Trump no matter what the polls are or even if he loses the popular vote by more than before (which is something that may happen), since it is the college that decides on his presidency.
However, the fact that Trump holds simple majority of people who are satisfied with him may be enough, in those important states, to give him the edge that he needs for victory.
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shoebat--2020-10-10--US National Debt Will Exceed The Size Of The Economy

One of the points that I have constantly emphasized as a major trend for the future is the growth of the national debt against the size of the economy and the ability to service debts .
This is going to have severe consequences for the national and as a result due to the position of the dollar , the world economy .
I have been very clear on Shoebat.com that the governmetnis being forced to acknowledge this reality , and likewise , to note that it only has one tool to deal with it- printing more money .
As such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the situation is dire , as in a few years , the debt will outside the national GDP .
On Thursday , the Congressional Budget Office estimated that for fiscal year 2020 , which ended September 30 , the US deficit hit $ 3.13 trillion — or 15.2 % of GDP — thanks to the chasm between what the country spent ( $ 6.55 trillion ) and what it took in ( $ 3.42 trillion ) for the year .
As a share of the economy , the estimated 2020 deficit is more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2019 .
And it ’ s the highest it has been since just after World War II .
The reason for the huge year-over-year jump is simple : Starting this spring , the federal government spent more than $ 4 trillion to help stem the economic pain to workers and businesses caused by sudden and widespread business shutdowns .
And most people agree more money will need to be spent until the White House manages to get the Covid-19 crisis under control .
The Treasury Department won ’ t put out final @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this month .
But if the CBO ’ s estimates are on the mark , the country ’ s total debt owed to investors — which is essentially the sum of annual deficits that have accrued over the years — will have outpaced the size of the economy , coming in at nearly 102 % of GDP , according to calculations from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget .
The debt hasn ’ t been that high since 1946 , when the federal debt was 106.1 % of GDP .
“ Debt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and soon it will be larger than any time in history , ” CRFB president Maya MacGuineas said .
The problem with such high debt levels going forward is that they will increasingly constrain what the government can do to meet the country ’ s needs .
Spending is projected to continue rising and is far outpacing revenue .
And interest payments alone on the debt — even if rates remain low — will consume an ever-growing share of tax dollars .
Given the risks of future disruptions , like a pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outpacing economic growth puts the country at greater risk of a fiscal crisis , which in turn would require sharp cuts to the services and benefits on which Americans rely .
“ There is no set tipping point at which a fiscal crisis becomes likely or imminent , nor is there an identifiable point at which interest costs as a percentage of GDP become unsustainable , ” CBO director Phillip Swagel said last month .
“ But as the debt grows , the risks become greater.
” ( source ) One may recall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spend money to keep it strong .
But if people can not spend because they are not earning enough , it can ’ t pay its debts , which means more debt to pay for obligations , and with it more currency printing to get money to people , which devalues the currency , and creates more job losses by way of higher prices and forced business closures , which means less spending .
There is no way out of this cycle until the debt itself is managed , and that is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis is forced because it is at its ultimate center a political issue .
Donate now to help support the work of this site .
When you donate , you are not donating to just any commentary group , but one that is endlessly observing the news , reading between the lines and separating hysteria and perception from reality .
In shoebat.com , we are working every day , tirelessly investigating global trends and providing data and analysis to tell you what lies for the future .
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One of the points that I have constantly emphasized as a major trend for the future is the growth of the national debt against the size of the economy and the ability to service debts. This is going to have severe consequences for the national and as a result due to the position of the dollar, the world economy.
I have been very clear on Shoebat.com that the governmetnis being forced to acknowledge this reality, and likewise, to note that it only has one tool to deal with it- printing more money. As such, even CNN is now admitting that the situation is dire, as in a few years, the debt will outside the national GDP.
On Thursday, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that for fiscal year 2020, which ended September 30, the US deficit hit $3.13 trillion — or 15.2% of GDP — thanks to the chasm between what the country spent ($6.55 trillion) and what it took in ($3.42 trillion) for the year. As a share of the economy, the estimated 2020 deficit is more than triple what the annual deficit was in 2019. And it’s the highest it has been since just after World War II. The reason for the huge year-over-year jump is simple: Starting this spring, the federal government spent more than $4 trillion to help stem the economic pain to workers and businesses caused by sudden and widespread business shutdowns. And most people agree more money will need to be spent until the White House manages to get the Covid-19 crisis under control. The Treasury Department won’t put out final numbers for fiscal year 2020 until later this month. But if the CBO’s estimates are on the mark, the country’s total debt owed to investors — which is essentially the sum of annual deficits that have accrued over the years — will have outpaced the size of the economy, coming in at nearly 102% of GDP, according to calculations from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The debt hasn’t been that high since 1946, when the federal debt was 106.1% of GDP. “Debt is the size of the economy today, and soon it will be larger than any time in history,” CRFB president Maya MacGuineas said. The problem with such high debt levels going forward is that they will increasingly constrain what the government can do to meet the country’s needs. Spending is projected to continue rising and is far outpacing revenue. And interest payments alone on the debt — even if rates remain low — will consume an ever-growing share of tax dollars. Given the risks of future disruptions, like a pandemic, a debt load that already is outpacing economic growth puts the country at greater risk of a fiscal crisis, which in turn would require sharp cuts to the services and benefits on which Americans rely. “There is no set tipping point at which a fiscal crisis becomes likely or imminent, nor is there an identifiable point at which interest costs as a percentage of GDP become unsustainable,” CBO director Phillip Swagel said last month. “But as the debt grows, the risks become greater.” (source)
One may recall that the US economy requires people to spend money to keep it strong. But if people cannot spend because they are not earning enough, it can’t pay its debts, which means more debt to pay for obligations, and with it more currency printing to get money to people, which devalues the currency, and creates more job losses by way of higher prices and forced business closures, which means less spending.
There is no way out of this cycle until the debt itself is managed, and that is not going to happen until most likely a crisis is forced because it is at its ultimate center a political issue.
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shoebat--2020-10-09--Putin Veritably Declares Support For The Democrat Party, Says There Are Many Common Values Between T

Putin Veritably Declares Support For The Democrat Party, Says There Are Many Common Values Between The Democrats And Communism


shoebat--2020-10-10--Russia And Turkey Are Both Capitalizing On The War Between Armenia And Azerbaijan To Expand Their Gl

Russia And Turkey Are Both Capitalizing On The War Between Armenia And Azerbaijan To Expand Their Global Power

As Armenians and Azeris continue to kill each other , there are a lot of people who continue to hope that Russia will intervene on behalf of the Armenians .
Is this really likely ?
Is this something that we should have great hopes in ?
While an eventual war between Russia and Turkey is very likely , for now Russia wants the conflict to take place to give Moscow the opportunity to assert herself in the South Caucasus and maintain Russian geopolitical order .
The current administration in Armenia initially took power with a more pro-Western ( pro-US and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a distancing from Russian power .
The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan , then , gives Russia the perfect opportunity to force Armenia back into the Russian sphere .
The ruling Armenian government began on not very nice terms with Moscow .
For one , Prime Minister Pashinyan came to office as a result of the Color Revolution , which was pro-European .
On top of this , Pashinyan , in the previous parliament , led the “ Yelk ” ( Exit ) faction , which wanted Armenia to break away from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has not forgotten .
While there is definitely a strong pro-Russian sentiment within Armenia , much of the country ’ s youth have become strongly more favorable towards integrating with the West .
Russia is currently not totally on the side of Armenia ; Russia provides weapons to both Armenian and Azeri militaries .
And if Armenia does not respect Russian interests , it is possible that Russia will threaten Armenia by giving more support to the Azeris .
In the words of Wojciech Górecki , an expert on the Caucasus : Gorecki @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Russian demands .
Inerevan made the announcement that it was not going to sign a partnership agreement with the European Union at the upcoming Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius , but was rather going to join the Customs Union of Russia , Belarus and Kazakhstan and would also join the Eurasian Economic Union .
This was the result of Russian pressure .
Gorecki points out that there is even conjecture that Moscow “ has threatened to roll up its informal protective umbrella over Karabakh and turn a blind eye if Baku decides to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such a risk.
” Armenia is hoping that Russia will intervene , but Moscow is in a difficult predicament .
It wants to maintain an alliance with Armenia , but at the same time it does not want to lose its strategic partner , Azerbaijan , to Turkey .
It is worth noting that if Russia were to spark more enmity with Azerbaijan , that Baku would only get deeper into the embraces of Russia ’ s historic enemy , Turkey , which is already in a rivalry with Russia over control of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not want to completely lose a strategic partner to Turkey , although looking at how closely Turkey and Azerbaijan are collaborating against Armenia , this would not be shocking at all .
Turkey , obviously , is using the conflict as an opportunity to impose her own will in the Caucasus .
By being the main backer of the Azeris , Turkey can then assert itself also as a peace broker .
Russia is doing the same thing ; hence why both Moscow and Ankara have been both speaking about peace talks .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ but about capitalizing on war in order to take control of the chaos ; for the ones who control the chaos are the ones with power .
What you have here is nothing new : two poor countries going to war with each other , and two powerful countries ( Russia and Turkey ) working to encroach on the regions of violence to expand their own zone of influence , control the belligerent parties , and expand hegemony .
The ones who can dictate peace can also destroy peace , and this is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with when observing such conflicts .
What Turkey is doing , in the words of Gorecki , is “ in line with the assertive policy of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan , which is also observed in the Eastern Mediterranean , around Cyprus , Greece , Idlib ( Syria ) , Libya and the Horn of Africa .
All this meets the assumptions of the Mavi Vatan ( Blue Motherland ) doctrine , i.e .
the maritime perspective of Ankara ’ s foreign policy .
The Turks sincerely believe that this is a defense doctrine.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Minsk OSCE Group , she is not one of its co-chairmen .
Thus , Turkey has to exert her efforts as an Eastern hegemony to the point that she has to be given a final say so , be it in peace talks in the South Caucasus , or in Libya or in Syria .
Both Russia and Turkey have their interests in the South Caucasus , and that is the interest of control and power .
They are both pursuing hegemony through working to control the conflict .
But the question @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this power ?
Neither Russia nor Turkey will relinquish power without the prospect of war .
If one country lets go , it will only be a sign of coming conflict , just as Russia allowing the Austro-Hungarians to annex Bosnia was a presaging sign of conflict which eventually escalated into the First World War .
The black blood that seeps from the fields of Baku and that runs through pipelines adjacent to the field of battle on Nagorno-Karabakh , this is the material aim of all of the outside involvement in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ idea of their homeland , the idea of Armenia , and Azerbaijanis fight for their own nationalist and Islamist ideals , exterior powers will squeeze both countries of that black substance for which all the earth rests , and yet kills .

By Theodore Shoebat
As Armenians and Azeris continue to kill each other, there are a lot of people who continue to hope that Russia will intervene on behalf of the Armenians. Is this really likely? Is this something that we should have great hopes in? While an eventual war between Russia and Turkey is very likely, for now Russia wants the conflict to take place to give Moscow the opportunity to assert herself in the South Caucasus and maintain Russian geopolitical order. The current administration in Armenia initially took power with a more pro-Western (pro-US and pro-EU) position and really showed signs of a distancing from Russian power. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, then, gives Russia the perfect opportunity to force Armenia back into the Russian sphere. The ruling Armenian government began on not very nice terms with Moscow. For one, Prime Minister Pashinyan came to office as a result of the Color Revolution, which was pro-European. On top of this, Pashinyan, in the previous parliament, led the “Yelk” (Exit) faction, which wanted Armenia to break away from Russian hegemony. This is something Russia has not forgotten. While there is definitely a strong pro-Russian sentiment within Armenia, much of the country’s youth have become strongly more favorable towards integrating with the West.
Russia is currently not totally on the side of Armenia; Russia provides weapons to both Armenian and Azeri militaries. And if Armenia does not respect Russian interests, it is possible that Russia will threaten Armenia by giving more support to the Azeris. In the words of Wojciech Górecki, an expert on the Caucasus:
Russia has a military base in Armenia, but it also maintains, as I said, good relations with Azerbaijan and may be in control of Yerevan by threatening the Armenians that if they do not respect its interests, it will increase its support for Baku.
Gorecki provides an example of Armenian submission to Russian demands. Inerevan made the announcement that it was not going to sign a partnership agreement with the European Union at the upcoming Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, but was rather going to join the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan and would also join the Eurasian Economic Union. This was the result of Russian pressure. Gorecki points out that there is even conjecture that Moscow “has threatened to roll up its informal protective umbrella over Karabakh and turn a blind eye if Baku decides to intervene. Armenia could not go to such a risk.” Armenia is hoping that Russia will intervene, but Moscow is in a difficult predicament. It wants to maintain an alliance with Armenia, but at the same time it does not want to lose its strategic partner, Azerbaijan, to Turkey.
It is worth noting that if Russia were to spark more enmity with Azerbaijan, that Baku would only get deeper into the embraces of Russia’s historic enemy, Turkey, which is already in a rivalry with Russia over control of the Black Sea. Russia obviously does not want to completely lose a strategic partner to Turkey, although looking at how closely Turkey and Azerbaijan are collaborating against Armenia, this would not be shocking at all. Turkey, obviously, is using the conflict as an opportunity to impose her own will in the Caucasus. By being the main backer of the Azeris, Turkey can then assert itself also as a peace broker. Russia is doing the same thing; hence why both Moscow and Ankara have been both speaking about peace talks.
Ultimately it is not about peace, but about capitalizing on war in order to take control of the chaos; for the ones who control the chaos are the ones with power. What you have here is nothing new: two poor countries going to war with each other, and two powerful countries (Russia and Turkey) working to encroach on the regions of violence to expand their own zone of influence, control the belligerent parties, and expand hegemony. The ones who can dictate peace can also destroy peace, and this is one reality we should come to grips with when observing such conflicts. What Turkey is doing, in the words of Gorecki, is “in line with the assertive policy of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, which is also observed in the Eastern Mediterranean, around Cyprus, Greece, Idlib (Syria), Libya and the Horn of Africa. All this meets the assumptions of the Mavi Vatan (Blue Motherland) doctrine, i.e. the maritime perspective of Ankara’s foreign policy. The Turks sincerely believe that this is a defense doctrine.” While Turkey is a member of the Minsk OSCE Group, she is not one of its co-chairmen. Thus, Turkey has to exert her efforts as an Eastern hegemony to the point that she has to be given a final say so, be it in peace talks in the South Caucasus, or in Libya or in Syria.
Both Russia and Turkey have their interests in the South Caucasus, and that is the interest of control and power. They are both pursuing hegemony through working to control the conflict. But the question lies, are they going to share this power? Neither Russia nor Turkey will relinquish power without the prospect of war. If one country lets go, it will only be a sign of coming conflict, just as Russia allowing the Austro-Hungarians to annex Bosnia was a presaging sign of conflict which eventually escalated into the First World War. The black blood that seeps from the fields of Baku and that runs through pipelines adjacent to the field of battle on Nagorno-Karabakh, this is the material aim of all of the outside involvement in the chaos. While Armenians fight for the idea of their homeland, the idea of Armenia, and Azerbaijanis fight for their own nationalist and Islamist ideals, exterior powers will squeeze both countries of that black substance for which all the earth rests, and yet kills.
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shoebat--2020-10-10--Polls Suggest Trump Victory In November 2020

One of the points that Ted , Walid , and I have noted is that their is a clear chance that Trump will win in 2020 .
There are various reasons for thus , but to summarize the main ones , 1 ) The incumbent always holds an advantage 2 ) Biden is objectively one of the worse candidates that one could pick for many reasons regardless of one ’ s personal feelings about him ( potentially serious signs of cognitive decline , history of sexual misconduct , history of questionable behavior towards children , recent history of odd statements @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unclear policy on many issues , unlikable to the public choice of Vice Presidential nominee , etc . )
4 ) Odd behavior from the Democrat party gives the popular impression of them being unsuitable for office It has been noted that the latter two points could be changed with a strong Democrat candidate so much that potential swing states could bring in sufficient votes to get a Democrat victory .
However , the above points suggest not just a case of mere Democrat incompetency , but almost it is as though the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more years of Trump .
The reason I have said this is because , politically speaking , a Democrat 2020 loss is an almost guarantee of a Democrat 2024 landslide victory as well as a long-term poltiical victory that could put the Republican Party on a path to long-term obsolesence .
Likewise , a Republican loss might provide sufficient energy to break the Democrat hold on the Black bloc they have had for over a half-century and also pull large numbers of the White and critical Hispanic blocs into their influence , thus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of work by the Democrat party .
It is with interest then , that according to Zero Hedge , in spite of the current news saying that Trump can not win , that various computers models put out suggest a Trump victory in November .
In the following Election Review from Camelot Portfolios , we look at what some of the polling firms that called 2016 correctly are seeing today .
“ Shocking ” , their polling suggests that President Trump will be re-elected , either narrowly or by a large margin .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ capital allocators today can not easily assume next month ’ s results.
” It ’ s very possible that Trump will win Florida , North Carolina and Arizona .
If so , a win in Pennsylvania or Michigan will likely put him over the top in the electoral college .
And speaking of “ shocking ” , Camelot notes that as far as the Senate and House are concerned , it also appears that Republicans will keep control of the Senate , especially if Trump has a strong night .
On the other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to remain in Democratic control .
Which brings us to the punchline , and what Trafalgar sees as the outcome on Nov 3 .
In a nutshell , based on Trafalgar swing state polls , Trumps wins with 275 electoral votes : What about the the “ winner ” in the 2016 polling fiasco , the Democracy Institute , and its Latest Poll for September : Only asks likely voters , and asks about so-called ‘ shy votes ’ .
Trump leads Biden 46 % -45 % , nationally .
Trump leads in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ MI , MN , PA , WI ) 47 % to 43 % .
Trump ’ s swing state leads would give him 320 electoral votes , and Biden 218 .
77 % of Trump voters would not admit to friends and family .
Amy Coney Barrett nomination has little impact on approximately 8 in 10 voters .
Law and order is top issue ( 32 % ) .
Economy is second ( 30 % ) .
Voters trust Trump more on economy than Biden : 60 % to 40 % , respectively @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the event has passed .
However , there is a reasonable concern that in spite of the public cheering for Biden , Trump will likely lose the popular vote by more than in 2016 , but since it is only the Electoral College that matters , that is all that he needs to focus his energies on .
Donate now to help support the work of this site .
When you donate , you are not donating to just any commentary group , but one that is endlessly observing the news , reading @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perception from reality .
In shoebat.com , we are working every day , tirelessly investigating global trends and providing data and analysis to tell you what lies for the future .
CLICK HERE TO FOLLOW OUR NEW SHOEBAT FACEBOOK PAGE

One of the points that Ted, Walid, and I have noted is that their is a clear chance that Trump will win in 2020. There are various reasons for thus, but to summarize the main ones,
1) The incumbent always holds an advantage
2) Biden is objectively one of the worse candidates that one could pick for many reasons regardless of one’s personal feelings about him (potentially serious signs of cognitive decline, history of sexual misconduct, history of questionable behavior towards children, recent history of odd statements at campaign or other political rallies, unclear policy on many issues, unlikable to the public choice of Vice Presidential nominee, etc.)
3) Current demographics support a Republican electoral college favor
4) Odd behavior from the Democrat party gives the popular impression of them being unsuitable for office
It has been noted that the latter two points could be changed with a strong Democrat candidate so much that potential swing states could bring in sufficient votes to get a Democrat victory. However, the above points suggest not just a case of mere Democrat incompetency, but almost it is as though the party wants to lose and wants four more years of Trump.
The reason I have said this is because, politically speaking, a Democrat 2020 loss is an almost guarantee of a Democrat 2024 landslide victory as well as a long-term poltiical victory that could put the Republican Party on a path to long-term obsolesence. Likewise, a Republican loss might provide sufficient energy to break the Democrat hold on the Black bloc they have had for over a half-century and also pull large numbers of the White and critical Hispanic blocs into their influence, thus revitalizing the Republican party and reversing decades of work by the Democrat party.
It is with interest then, that according to Zero Hedge, in spite of the current news saying that Trump cannot win, that various computers models put out suggest a Trump victory in November.
In the following Election Review from Camelot Portfolios, we look at what some of the polling firms that called 2016 correctly are seeing today. “Shocking”, their polling suggests that President Trump will be re-elected, either narrowly or by a large margin. Therefore, as Camelot notes, “capital allocators today cannot easily assume next month’s results.” It’s very possible that Trump will win Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. If so, a win in Pennsylvania or Michigan will likely put him over the top in the electoral college. And speaking of “shocking”, Camelot notes that as far as the Senate and House are concerned, it also appears that Republicans will keep control of the Senate, especially if Trump has a strong night. On the other hand, the House is highly likely to remain in Democratic control. … Which brings us to the punchline, and what Trafalgar sees as the outcome on Nov 3. In a nutshell, based on Trafalgar swing state polls, Trumps wins with 275 electoral votes: What about the the “winner” in the 2016 polling fiasco, the Democracy Institute, and its Latest Poll for September: Only asks likely voters, and asks about so-called ‘shy votes’.
Trump leads Biden 46%-45%, nationally.
Trump leads in swing states (FL, IA, MI, MN, PA, WI) 47% to 43%.
Trump’s swing state leads would give him 320 electoral votes, and Biden 218.
77% of Trump voters would not admit to friends and family.
Amy Coney Barrett nomination has little impact on approximately 8 in 10 voters.
Law and order is top issue (32%). Economy is second (30%).
Voters trust Trump more on economy than Biden: 60% to 40%, respectively (source)
There is no guarantee of anything until the event has passed. However, there is a reasonable concern that in spite of the public cheering for Biden, Trump will likely lose the popular vote by more than in 2016, but since it is only the Electoral College that matters, that is all that he needs to focus his energies on.
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